What's It Gonna Take? The Playoff Numbers.

Not that we're terribly into reality around these parts, but here's a little dose for you: unless the Blues plan on becoming the hottest team in hockey over the next three months, they're going to be back on the golf courses early.

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No, EJ! Noooooooooo!

But that doesn't mean that there aren't a couple places that you can go and check on what, exactly, it would take for the Blues to get into the second season for the first time since before the NHL lockout and the 'management' of the Bill & Money Laurie ownership group conspired to blow up the franchise.

First, the big boss man, James Mirtle is tracking the entire NHL on what they have to do to hit 90 points. The assumption being that in the new NHL, 90 points is the threshold to get in.

Under this assumption, including last night's win in Vancouver, the Blues have to go 27-14-1 the rest of the way to get in.

So that's up hill.

The other place to go if you want to maniacally track the Blues' fleeting chances, is linked on our site as Sports Club Stats. The premise here is a little (lot) more involved than Mirtle's '90 points, you're in' basis.

SCS also tracks not just the Blues' record daily, but also every other game played and how that affects their odds. For instance, tonight the Blues are idle. But several teams that are playing will affect the Blues' chances of making the playoffs:

Saturday Games
Win OT Win Win OT Win
Avalanche -0.2 (-0.03) -0.2 (-0.03) versus Penguins 0.3 (0.03) 0.1 (0.01)
Canucks -0.2 -0.2 versus Sharks 0.3 0.1
Kings -0.2 (-0.04) -0.2 (-0.04) versus Devils 0.2 (0.04) 0.1 (0.01)
Predators -0.1 (-0.03) -0.2 (-0.04) versus Blackhawks 0.1 (0.04) 0.0 (0.00)

So now we know who to root for tonight; the Penguins, Sharks, Devils and, yes, Blackhawks. (In general, we need Eastern Conference teams to beat Western Conference teams, teams higher in the standings in the West to beat teams lower in the standings in the West. This all helps the Blues, who have a lot of teams to pass to get to eighth.) If all four of those teams win, the Blues' chances of making the playoffs increase by 0.92%.

Now an increase of less than 1% may seem trivial, but considering that the Blues' current percentage is a whopping 9.3% chance of making the playoffs, they can use every bit of help they can get.

Using the SCS method, the Blues calculated record required looks more like 25-16-1. Which is still quite a bit of an up hill journey. Then again, before the Blues won two in a row, their chances were around 5.3%, so momentum can definitely be built with winning streaks. 

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We'll continue to track these predictions as the season rolls on for you, unless of course the Blues go on an extended losing streak. If that happens maybe we'll just stick to tracking the percentages of winning the entry draft lottery.

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