GTARS Rankings -- Right Wings

that you rank Shattock first; is a point-a-game guy in the WHL more valuable than a point-a-game guy from the University of Michigan?

Admittedly, I dunno… the Blues have had success with players from the NCAA (Oshie) and Juniors (Perron), which is a good thing!

There is not a valuation for the toughness of the league, nor ice time per game etc. Very important factors for kids. Like Simon plays in a league full of adults. It might be the minors but still.

As far as college versus juniors, depends upon the league. For instance, the WHL is known for its toughness and scoring a bunch of points in that league can be a good thing if you’re doing it five on five. The OHL is full of goals.

Intersting system to note. I like the scouting method of points being added up in games for the right plays made, which part of the ice they go into, etc. Then you can average the games out and have an idea. But the NHL is a strange beast. Because of the talent you can play with your point totals can very. If a guy does not have speed and is a poor skater in general he will take a lot of hooking calls in the NHL, but he might score a lot of points at a lower level. A guy who plays a great game and has solid skills might play on a bad team or in a different role in junior and not have the most impressive point total. But he can jump into the NHL and play with some talent and suddenly put up some impressive numbers.

In general, you will see point success translated it is true. But it’s harder to do from the European leagues because of the different ice surface and game style. If you play for a coach who is strict defensively, even in the NHL, you will often see point totals drop.

The best evaluation is decision making, passes completed, shots, scoring chances created and positioning. Positioning and thinking the game are so important they can take an average skater(Lindstrom), and turn them into a beast that dominates where a great skater with poor decision making, postioning(as well as no hands—Jamal Mayers), doesn’t put up much nor do they dominate.

…as I’m still tweaking the ranking system a bit, and wanted to post the actual ranking charts before I post any of the rankings, but, oh well..

To address some folks’ comments:

I do have a category for “toughness of league;” it’s the last column. I have the AHL and European Elite leagues (KHL, SEL, SM-Liiga [FIN], 02 Extraliga [CZE]) ranked as 12 out of 10, with the major junior leagues at 9.0 (WHL), 8.8 (OHL) and 8.5 (QMJHL). The Division 1 college leagues are all ranked at 8.1 because they play only about 2/3 as many games in a season as the major junior leagues.

I have been poring over the last five years of the NHL Guide and Record Book, compiling stats from players making the jump from League “X” in one year to League “Y” in the previous year; I’ll use those stats to come up with a league equivalency ranking — example: 25 goals in 50 games in the USHL projects to a likely 15 goals in 45 games in the CCHA, but 22 goals in 45 games in the ECAC, or something like that.

Time — and avoiding needless conflicts with Frau Prospects over “doing hockey stuff for no pay” — is the issue here, unfortunately…

I probably should give more weight to the “money goals” column (PP, SHW, GWG). Shattocks 19 PPG and 5 GWG, compared to Palushaj’s 4 PPG and 2 GWG, are a big part of the reason, in my mind, why he’s ranked higher.

Generally, bigger is better than smaller, younger is better than older, and more goals are better than fewer goals.

The PIM ranking is on a bell curve; it goes from 1.0 for 0-25 PIM up to 5.0 for 100-125 PIM, then back down as the PIM totals increase. It’s not a perfect method by any means, but it reflects the notion that too many PIM’s are detrimental to the team as a whole, because it forces the penalty-killing units to work harder.

I’d also like to work some kind of basic skills evaluation/ranking into this… that’s tough to do, however, because of the discrepancy of scouting reports available on players. I don’t get to see every player play personally, and so I’d have to rely on published scouting reports (McKeens, primarily, for the players already drafted) for evaluations of their skating, physical presence, stickhandling, shot and “intangibles.”

This system isn’t meant to be a scouting tool, although it could certainly be developed into one… it’s meant to be a primarily stats-based, objective evaluation tool to give the proletariat some idea of how the players stack up against one another in the organ-i-zation. That’s why I weighted the “per-game” categories (G/Gm, A/Gm, Pt/G, PM/G) higher than any of the individual goal, assist or PIM categories.

I weighted the Raw Points category perhaps higher than I should, however…

I’d appreciate any other thoughts, suggestions, etc. you guys have on this system.

B.

For some guys, fewer is better because they’re on penalties that hurt their team (Dancin’ Steve Wagner’s penchant for hooking calls comes to mind). But when you look at a guy like Backes, who racks up PIM, I’d argue that they aren’t as hurtful (fighting majors, matching roughing penalties, etc) or that they are tone-setting power-forward typical calls.

To simply say that more PIM is better or worse (and honestly, I don’t know exactly how they play out in this system) is tough to gauge.