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Tuesdays With Hildy, Chapter 2: Should the Teams Sell the Farm?


Most hockey fans fall into one of two camps: wait and see or do it now.  It's a much more difficult decision for real GMs than it is for the armchair GMs though - real life is not NHL09.  You can't fudge things to build a superteam that decimates the league to win the Cup in straight swept series.  It just doesn't work that way... you have to barter, trade, have scouts and minor league coaches who can identify potential future stars and work with them.  You have to grow talent.

Sometimes, though, the Miracle Gro that your team thought that they'd applied to the young kids isn't working as fast as it needs to.  Or it isn't working at all.  Your team is languishing at the middle to upper bottom of the Conference, and it's getting to wear on everyone.  You need a quick, obvious fix to keep the frustration from the fans from being too much, because after all - fan frustration leads to lost attendance and lost revenue.

Star-divide

Everyone Prefers a Home Grown Tomato.

If there were a hockey club that was a living, breathing example of how to grow young talent, there is no better place to look than the St. Louis Blues.  Hockey's Future ranked us the number one prospect system in the NHL recently, and if you look at the line up for Pro-Orientation Camp, it practically looks competent enough to probably outplay the Avs this year at the very least (ok, that says very little about our prospects - mea culpa).  Pietrangelo.  Cole.  Eller.  Palushaj.  McRae.  The points they put up with their respective junior teams are impressive, but the real challenge comes with some way to maintain that output at an NHL appropriate level (everyone knows that a kid with a 97 point year in the QMJHL is not going to have a 97 point year in the NHL).  This is when the onus of responsibility falls to the coaching staffs of the teams that the kids play on, but also the staff at the Pro-Orientation Camp.  A small pointer about stick handling at camp can plant a seed in that kids' mind about what they need to do.

How do we get these kids? With some of the best, well thought out drafting year in and year out.  Jarmo Kekalainen is basically money in the bank.  Disagree with some of his drafting choices if you want to, but chances are pretty good that these guys will work out.  I'm not sure if he has some sort of Magic Scouting 8 Ball or if he is just capable of seeing things in these guys that others don't, but anyone responsible for drafting Johnson, Petro, Oshie, and Perron is someone that I really can't forsee myself fighting with him on anything.  That, and he's a professional scout.  I write on a blog.  See the difference there?

Patience is hard, it is.  But there's a lot of fun to be found in watching an 18 year old kid turn into the superstar of tomorrow.  And a lot of pride to be found when you know that kid's been yours since the start.

 

You Sure This is a Beefstake? Because it Looks Like a Cherry.

Sometimes, just sometimes, things don't work out the way that you would like for them to.  You have a bad season (or three).  Questionable ownership comes to town.  A GM who had a good record with another team has an atrocious record with yours.  The drafters for your club fall prey to the hype of someone instead of trying to shore up what you need.  Or, perhaps, years of drafting just sucked.  Sometimes you can't afford to wait for your team to fix itself, because it's too far in the future.  Your fans don't buy your promises of "you have a plan!" or "but these guys that we have playing for their junior clubs are great - just you wait and see in 3 years!".  Losing isn't fun.  The Cup is not won based on what your future potential is - it's based on winning that season. 

If your team is built with a bunch of 3rd liners, old guys, one star that you absolutely can't trade, and an overhyped rookie or two, you have a problem that you need to fix (or you can just be in denial - looking at you, Tampa Bay).  The absolute quickest way to do so is to buy.  Be a seller at the trade deadline, stock up picks, and then turn those for a player.  A well-offered 2nd and 3rd round pick might be enough to get you a veteran presence who has some gas left in the tank to guide your young guys without you having to lose any pieces that you might want to currently build around who are on the roster.  You have potentially sold some of the future, but you don't have a face to attach to that firesale,  If it works out for the team, no harm no foul.  if it fails, no one can come back to yell at you for the players that you have lost.

The more drastic move is trying to sell the farm for a superstar to bring in fans, add excitement, and jump start a squad.  This is only a viable move for a bubble team, because if you had the young guys who were playing well, you wouldn't be in last place.  Those young guys could continue to improve and make your team a contender next season, or the season after that, but you'd rather bet on getting a high impact player to make your team that contender now.

Yes, you'd be selling 2 or 3 pieces of the puzzle to get one.  But somehow, some way, it could work.  More often than not it doesn't and then you're left wondering what could have been when you're stuck with a guy with a huge contract, or you've sold players for a pending RFA or UFA that you can't get to re-sign.  For some GMs, that is well worth the risk.  Other GMs would have loved to have sent Perron and Walt to Boston for Kessel.  Or Perron and possibly Berglund to the Ducks for Pronger.  Or Perron and... you get the idea.  Occasionally it works, but it works for the team missing that piece - look at Hossa on the Pens 2 years ago.  A lot of times it doesn't, and then you have an Antropov to NY Rangers deal that added more salary to an already bloated payroll and just sped up a first round exit.

Poll
Should the Blues trade prospects for a sure-fired thing for this season?
Absolutely. We need some scoring depth to add to Boyes.
10 votes
No. We were rated the #1 prospect system by Hockey's Future for a reason. Let's keep it that way.
104 votes

114 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 10 comments |

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Pretty accurate wrapup

And I feel like this sort of analysis could work for any major team sport. It’s just insane how impatient people are with their sports teams today. Just because the management of your team isn’t willing to carelessly throw around cash doesn’t mean your management needs to be replaced or big names need to be rushed into the organization. Plus I think you hit the nail on the head with this:

…there’s a lot of fun to be found in watching an 18 year old kid turn into the superstar of tomorrow.

Everyone loves that feeling. There is one thing to be debated though…I completely disagree with:
real life is not NHL09

Until NHL 10 comes out, real life IS 09. Thanks for the great write up, Hildy.

by Busch Ice on Jul 14, 2009 11:59 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Wonderful stuff as always, ma'am!

If only Mike Keenan would’ve been able to read something like this 20 years ago, the Blues wouldn’t have been a fucked-up mess in the early part of this decade. Goddamn you, Mike Keenan.

"The world is getting to be such a dangerous place, a man is lucky to get out of it alive." -- W.C. Fields

by Donut King on Jul 14, 2009 12:11 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Wasn't just Trader Mike...

… the Blues had been bitten by the “trade the future to win now” bug long before Keenan arrived. The franchise suffered that illness from the late 80s to the early 2000s; it took a lockout and a series of brain-dead decisions by a bad owner to cure the Blues.

Don’t get me wrong, there are plenty of reasons to vilify Mike Keenan. But he wasn’t the first front-office type to throw tons of “meat on the burner”.

by BleedBlue42 on Jul 14, 2009 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

While true to an extent . . .

at least 60% of Ron Caron’s moves could be justified on some end (sorry Answer man, but the Butcher deal would have to be in the 40%, as much as I liked the guy too). Maybe . . . MAYBE . . . 10% of Keenan’s moves could be justified.

But yes, Caron had a penchant for just shipping off some nutty ideas to other GM’s. Just a small part of his charm.

"The world is getting to be such a dangerous place, a man is lucky to get out of it alive." -- W.C. Fields

by Donut King on Jul 14, 2009 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think Keenan'd listen to me.

He could have had an in-depth conversation with Jesus Christ and still have managed to ruin this team, and so many, many others.

I think people in Miami hate him almost as much as we do.

Reporter: There`s a "stamp out the Beatles movement" underway in Detroit. What are you going to do about it?

Paul McCartney: We`re going to start a campaign to stamp out Detroit.

by hildymac on Jul 14, 2009 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I voted no

For now. I believe that the Blues need another year (or preferably two) to find out what they really have in certain players on the roster.

I remember seeing players like Jim Campbell break out onto the scene in their first two years (not counting the 16 games with the Ducks in the previous season) with 23 and 22 goals back in ‘96-’97 and ‘97-’98. The Blues dropped him to free agency and he dropped off into relative obscurity scoring 14 goals over bits and pieces of 6 more seasons in the NHL.

I also remember guys like Nelson Emerson (who coincidentally was my favorite player for the better part of 2 seasons) busting onto the scene with 23 and 22 goals (sound familiar?) in their first two seasons (‘91-’92 and ‘92-’93). The Blues traded him to Winnipeg, where he went on to continue scoring 76 goals over the next three seasons (2 with the Jets, one with the Whalers).

As 2nd/3rd line-tweeners, like many of the players we have currently should be, sometimes it is nice to let it all shake out and see what kind of player they really are before decisions are made.

by stlfan on Jul 14, 2009 12:26 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Ewwwwwwwww....

I like tomaters. I like to stand in the garden and carve a nice fresh one. I also like to throw them at the Renaissance Fair booth where they have the guy in the stockade. Well, until I hit the dude a couple times and they make me put the tomaters down and leave. The trick is not to just throw one, the guy in the stockade will just turn his head. Whip one and the fire #2 just to the other side of #1. Dude can’t get his head out of the way in time and gets a tomater face splat.

As far as the poll, stay the course. Steady as she goes, no selling out early. I’ve waited 42 years so what’s a couple more to be able to finally touch the Cup in San Louie.

Dum spiramus tuebimur

by spectr17 on Jul 14, 2009 11:02 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Juan Mallagher

has said several times that the number of legit prospects in the system means not all of them will be able to play in St. Louis. Not practical. But most of them aren’t in a position for the Blues to make a decision on them yet. I have high hopes for Ian Cole, but he could be a big piece of a deal. But him playing at ND, it’s hard to judge what kind of NHL player he could be.

When the time is right, I’m on board for a trade or two, but that’s probably not this season.

www.stlouisgametime.com

by Brad Lee on Jul 15, 2009 9:26 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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Keystone Lake Zamboni falls through thin ice


A Zamboni took a dip in North America's largest groomed skating pond at Keystone Resort tonight.
A driver was grooming the lake at about 6:15 p.m., when the ice cracked and the 7,000-pound machine began to sink at about 6:15 p.m. As a precaution, skaters were cleared from another area of the 5-acre pond, resort spokesman Ryan Whaley said. The driver was not injured.
There was no word immediately on how soon the rink might re-open, but staff will examine the ice and remove the Zamboni Wednesday, Whaley said.
"They'll take it out and we'll see how it is," Whaley said of the machine and the safety of the ice around the crater.
With a lake that large, other areas could reopen immediately, he said.

Once it dries out, the machine is likely salvageable, he said.
Kenneth Waesche snapped a photo of the sunken ice machine when he stopped by Lakeside Village for a pickup game of hockey. His wife planned to do some skating.
Waesche said that the "thin ice" sign in the foreground of the photo was some distance away from where the Zamboni went in.
The lake is typically open from Dec. 18 to March. 28 depending on the weather, from 10 a.m. to 9 p.m. 

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Watch video of the Keystone zamboni falling through the ice. 
Video courtesy of Robert Brecht.

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