Tuesdays With Hildy: The Positives and Negatives of the Plus-Minus Statistic.
Look at the following players statistics:
23-38-61; +6
33-39-72; -20
What do you make of these stats? It says a bit about how you view the game if you float towards the one at the end first and place a lot of emphasis on it - it shows that you expect your players to be defensively responsible - a minus in this area negates the effort they put forth on the ice. If you look at the points and go by that, you might be more of a fan of what people cringingly call the "new NHL," or wide open scoring with a lack of emphasis on defensive responsibility (or smaller goalie pads).
The second guy might just score, but he looks like a defensive liability. The first guy? Not half bad. It shouldn't surprise you to see that the latter of the two is our very own Bradley Boyes, who led the Blues in scoring but also managed to be last on the team in +/-. The former is Alexei Ponikarovsky of the Toronto Maple Leafs, who led his team in +/-.
Plus/Minus is an Essential StatisticSomething that is helpful about the +/- stat is that it can tell someone at a glance who is a defensive liability, and who is a defensive godsend. If you see someone with a +33 rating (say, Travis Zajac of the New Jersey Devils), you automatically catch that hey - he might actually know how to backcheck and defend. Maybe he's not turning the puck over, either - perhaps he has some modicum of responsibility in his own zone (or, perhaps he just plays for NJ, who has a fairly high +/- rating overall with a few exceptions). The fact that he was 20-42-62 last season also tells you that he did not rely solely on his own production to bolster that stat. If you have a defenseman who is +29 (Willie Mitchell of the Vancouver Canucks), that's even better - he is actually doing his job and is doing possibly more work defensively than most forwards although he only had 3 goals that season. When you have guys like both of the players mentioned, you know that they will work hard to make sure that the opposition's point total is small - they understand what a two-way game is.
What do you make of players with an abysmal +/-? A low score in this area might be a major red flag. It could be that the player is just generally atrocious (Brendan Witt? Yeah, I'm looking at you and your -34), or perhaps they have no concept of what defensive play is. One way players, such as Boyes, Marc Savard (yes, he had a good season this year at +25, but he is a career -49) Rod Brind'Amour (-23 this year, and his output is dropping off), and Ilya Kovalchuk (-12, but still 43-48-91) are dynamic, fun, and oftentimes get the "cornerstone of your franchise" moniker. Everyone has their jerseys. No one wants someone's jersey because they lead the team in +/-, but if you lead your team in goals, well, that's where it's at. But, these players are defensive liabilities. They are prone to turnovers, lazy play, no concept of backchecking, and a lot of times are the last ones into their defensive zones. When you have a player responsible for 43 goals and he is a -12 despite that output, there's an issue.
What if you're on a really good, tight team and have a poor +/- rating such as Stephane Veilleux, late of the Minnesota Wild(s) and current prisoner of the Tampa Bay Lightning, something is wrong. He was a -17 on a tight, trap playing Wild team. Get ready to see that +/- sink lower on Tampa, who despite the fact that they beefed up the defense, will probably continue to mismanage them and cycle them faster than that guy in your roto-league drops and adds players.
Often useful too is to look at goal/point output and then overall +/-. The Washington Capitals have Alexander Semin and Alexander Ovechkin. Semin leads his team in +/- (and bongo drum playing) with a +25, while scoring 34 goals. Ovie is in the middle of his squad at a +8... but he scored 56 goals. Which is the bigger defensive liability?
One of the best two-way players in the league is Martin Havlat, late of the Chicago Blackhawks. 29-48-77 and a +29. When healthy, he's probably the perfect player to have on your team. Which is shockingly not enough for the 'Hawks, who dumped him in favor of another excellent 2 way star, Marian Hossa. Apparently there is more to the +/- stat... which we will get to in a second.
There's more than meets the eye, here...
An issue that many people don't take into consideration when looking at the +/- of a player is what is expected of him. Is that player a 4th line grinder out there against the top line? Who are their linemates - are they responsible as well, or are they shoved onto a line with an individual with a finger up their nose (or elsewhere)? Who is on D at the time that the goal is scored - would it be the top pairing, or is it the bottom 2? Also important is who is in goal. I'm fairly sure that someone threw a beach ball past Marty Turco once or twice this season when Mike Modano and his -13 were on the ice. There are a lot of intangibles here to look at. What is the make up of the team as a whole? Some people believe that a -16 on a team like the Thrashers is excusable (even though it comes from defenceman Ron Hainsey). Does that make a +13 like Rich Peverley even more impressive? In any case, a -34 like Witt has is inexcusable, even on a team as abysmal as the Islanders were last season.
Please keep in mind, though, that goals scored against you while your team is on the PK do NOT impact a player's +/- stat, so the aged old excuse "But we use him on the PK!" doesn't work. And if he's a PK specialist, why is his +/- so horrible to begin with? Empty net goals do in fact count against a player's plus minus, so that should be mildly taken into consideration as well, although the difference between a player's current stat and the stat without the empty net goals might be extremely small.
More telling than +/- is something called the Corsi Number, which is mathematically evil but probably correct. The corsi is the number of shots directed at the net when a specific player is on the ice. This eliminates the variable of the goaltender, and places more of an onus on the defensive abilities and shot blocking/preventive skills of the squad on the ice. I would explain it further, but the linked website does a fine job.
Anyway, draw your own conclusions from what I've written here. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that basically, when you look at stats, you want defensemen like Rob Scuderi (+23) and not like Jack Johnson (-18). Yay for LA, they have them both. This should be fun. You might want to look more at 2 way forwards, too, when piecing together a hockey team (or fantasy team), but there is no shame in having an offensive powerhouse like Kovalchuk or Ovechkin there either... just make sure that they're backed up by people who know what they're doing defensively. Someone has to score the goals to get these guys' numbers up... Berglund wasn't a +19 just because of himself.
Hildy occasionally writes down news and notes on the St. Louis Blues as well as the Atlanta Thrashers at her site Wazzupwitchu.
0 recs |
15 comments
|
Comments
Quite a fine read here.
I will say that the +/- stat is one I’m on the fence on when considering its importance . . . I picked “yes” only because it’s a useful stat, but I would pick “no” only if it were completely worthless. But, for instance, +/- does not take into account the goaltender, and Marty Turco from last year – as you mentioned – is a perfect example of that (I mean seriously, folks . . . I could’ve fucking scored on THAT dude last year . . . yeesh).
Good for some, stupid for others, essential for all. Oh, and I recently noticed the NBA is using +/- as a countable statistic now, which is about the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard of. But that’s another story for another time.
"The world is getting to be such a dangerous place, a man is lucky to get out of it alive." -- W.C. Fields
by Donut King on Jul 21, 2009 12:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
“I could’ve fucking scored on THAT dude last year "
thats what she said
Never forget Philo T. Farnsworth
"I want to fucking break it. I want to crush you from the inside."~ Static X
"Turned into a monster I'm a motherfucker!!!" ~ Static X
"Stay away from me because I'm dancing to quit a different drum beat," - Eminem
by Carnie on Jul 21, 2009 3:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Atlanta Question for Hildy
Do you think Evander Kane will play up with the big club this year? What’s the word on his timeline?
by MMouse on Jul 21, 2009 1:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Not sure.
I am pretty sure they’ll play him in pre-season and give him the 9 game try out. I’m not sure where he’ll fit on our top two lines. Unless we move one of those guys off we’ll have to put him on the 3rd line with Army and Reasoner. That, and the kid needs to eat a cheeseburger. I saw him at camp after a practice, and he’s still in boy phase. The fact that Bogosian was built like a man helped him. Kane probably won’t be the impact player ZBo was.
Reporter: There`s a "stamp out the Beatles movement" underway in Detroit. What are you going to do about it?
Paul McCartney: We`re going to start a campaign to stamp out Detroit.
by hildymac on Jul 21, 2009 1:46 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with Donut
I picked yes simply because of situational stats, and the fact that PK is not taken into account. Yeah Boyes is our go-to-guy, but i cannot say I’m always happy with his play. Thats not to say he doesnt go out there and play hard, but when the idea of back-checking and defensive pressure post losing the puck is something to be desired.
And of course, these two-way specialist players mentioned, Hossa, Datsyuk, etc. have the benefit of playing on high-scoring teams and have ridiculous talent around them, but there is something to say of their teams success and their playing styles.
I would love to see Boyes pick up on his defensive skills, yes I want him concentrating near 100% on his offensive skills, but there’s an entire game of hockey played, and i wont even go with the "Defense wins . . . "
Oshie, Perron, Berglund, all had good +/-, but they also were out there against 2nd and 3rd lines etc. So is that significant or is it purely a depiction of their effectiveness.
So i guess to try to wrap it up, as i am all over the board with this post, i think the +/- means more than most would say, but means less than people who think its important do.
When the games on the line, we will put Boyes out there, hes our goal scorer, but hes also a liability for the other team to bury the game, so i guess its the lesser of two evils.
If its a shut down guy with a bad +/-, that can be expected, If its your top line guy, well idk about that
I know the PK isn’t counted, does that mean also that the PP is not counted as well??
All i know is it could not be a bad thing for Boyes to be out of the red this season.
"I quit because I didn't feel like the Detroit Lions had a chance to win. It just killed my enjoyment of the game."
-Barry Sanders
(Soon to be the Detroit RedWings - Henrik Zetterberg)
by DasBlues74 on Jul 21, 2009 4:57 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Power play does count.
Good point about looking at what lines the guys are out there against. If a team’s first line is out against the grinders there’s a higher chance that if it isn’t a good checking line, then their +/- is going to be good at least that game.
Stupid intangibles make my head hurt.
Reporter: There`s a "stamp out the Beatles movement" underway in Detroit. What are you going to do about it?
Paul McCartney: We`re going to start a campaign to stamp out Detroit.
by hildymac on Jul 21, 2009 9:02 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Are you sure?
I just posted below …. I could swear that a PP goal for does NOT give you a + , in the same manner that a PK goal against doesn’t count as a – ….
.... formerly "Tim" of StLouisGameTime.com
by CrossCheckRaise on Jul 21, 2009 9:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wait a sec
There has to be a discrepancy between the NHL site and el Wikipedia.
Reporter: There`s a "stamp out the Beatles movement" underway in Detroit. What are you going to do about it?
Paul McCartney: We`re going to start a campaign to stamp out Detroit.
by hildymac on Jul 21, 2009 11:08 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Wikipedia is free of Bettman’s influence…
Let's go Blues!!!
by Milo. on Jul 22, 2009 7:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
plus minus tells part of the story
but not the whole thing.
if i guys is -20+, yeah he’s probably not very good without the puck. if a guy is +20 you know he isn’t terrible on defense.
my biggest problem is that +/- tends to reflect more on the team than the player. in the first half last year, our very own brad boyes was 22. that was when the blues were epically bad - so bad that fantanking was being discussed. suddenly the light turned on and the blues got better. boyes was +2 after the all-star break. now did he suddenly start to back check? maybe. or did his team just get better. it’s really hard to say. but a huge switch like that is surprising but i wonder how much it had to do with boyes playing defense or the blues getting better. you think he’ll be -20 this year? for some reason i think not.
by averagejoe on Jul 21, 2009 5:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
read the part that got a strikethrough
looks like sb nation put in an auto strikethrough if you put – around things — if you dont mean it.
by averagejoe on Jul 21, 2009 5:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
+/- is an important, but incomplete stat
PP goals for do not count, nor do PK goals against. Shorties count, but are so few in number as to be insignificant. If you are a PP specialist, then you’re going to be aquiring Gs and As, but not affecting your +/-. That was part of BB’s problems. Of the 72 points that BB had (33G /39A), 35 were on the PP (16 PPG/ 19 PPA). Roughly half of BB’s offensive production did not affect his +/- at all.
So, it simply doesn’t tell the whole story.
.... formerly "Tim" of StLouisGameTime.com
by CrossCheckRaise on Jul 21, 2009 9:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
From NHL.com (FWIW)
Plus-Minus
A player is awarded a “plus” each time he is on the ice when his Club scores an even-strength or shorthanded goal. He receives a “minus” if he is on the ice for an even-strength or shorthanded goal scored by the opposing Club. The difference in these numbers is considered the player’s “plus-minus” statistic.
.... formerly "Tim" of StLouisGameTime.com
by CrossCheckRaise on Jul 21, 2009 9:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Duh
.... formerly "Tim" of StLouisGameTime.com
by CrossCheckRaise on Jul 21, 2009 9:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

by 













![Backes design from your friends at 314 Threads [314threads.com]. De-troit Sucks.](http://cdn1.sbnation.com/fan_shot_images/103150/4418130329_d70e4e8808_o_small.png)



















