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Blues Scoring Woes: Anomaly or Status Quo?

Brad Boyes and the rest of his oft-shooting teammates are doing the right things to be successfully offensively, they just need to figure out how to translate those shots into goals.

It's a little upsetting to see how quickly the story lines about the Blues have gone from "high-flying, offensively creative, league-leading in shots" to "not a goal-scoring team, defensive minded, goaltending-first" in just a couple weeks. At the outset of the season, the Blues were near the top of the league in shots per game. Sure, they weren't blowing teams away on the scoreboard (except for that struggling Ducks team they smoked 5-1), but if the team was averaging well over 30 shots a game the reasoning goes that eventually some of them would start hitting the net at a higher rate .

The Blues have now not scored more than three goals in any one game since they put four up on Chicago back on Oct. 22 (they won 4-3 over Atlanta, but that was a win in shootout, so no actual fourth goal was scored in the game - thanks for the sweet rules, NHL!) and so the easy story is that the Blues are not an offensively motivated team and are playing a defensive lock-down style and relying on excellent goaltending from Jaroslav Halak and Ty Conklin.

The fact of the matter is that the Blues are still an offensive team, they just can't finish. Through 15 games the Blues are seventh in the NHL in shots per game, averaging 32.5. That number is just three shots per game behind league-leading San Jose. The Blues' number is less than one shot per game fewer than the average of all five of the other teams ahead of them in the category (Buffalo, Tampa, Detroit, Carolina and Colorado). More frustrating? The Blues' shots against per game is better than all six of those teams (second in the NHL at just 27.1 per game).

 The big problem, of course, is the rate at which all of those shots are hitting the back of the other team's net. The Blues have put on 488 shots this season and have scored just 36 times for a shooting percentage of just 7.38%. That scoring total is 27th in the league.

The other emerging story line is that the Blues are not a big goal-sroring team and that's been the case for a while. Simply not true. The Blues have 36 goals this year, which if they stay on that pace, will translate to a paltry 175 for the season. Last year's team had but three 20-plus goal scorers and one, David Perron, had only twenty. Neither Alex Steen nor Andy McDonald even reached 25 goals (24 each). But that low-scoring team managed 218 for the season, a total that put them 17th in the NHL. Additionally, last year's team fired on 2,445 shots; this year's team is on pace for  2,668, a total more than 200 higher. The Blues on-pace 175 would be nearly twenty goals lower than last year's worst-scoring club, the Boston Bruins.

In 2008-09 the Blues managed 227 goals, 19th in the NHL. Remember that awful 2007-2008 team? They managed 202 goals, well ahead of this year's pace.

Frankly, the problem doesn't seem to have much of a fix other than to simply "shoot better." The Blues need to continue to believe that their fast-break offense and intent to fire shots on net as much as possible will have to eventually start working better. Lots of shots tend to create lots of second chances and a large number of goals are scored at the NHL level on second and third chances simply because the goaltending is so good that first shots tend to be saved more often than not.

In the early season, the Blues are being led on the goal scoring chart by Matt D'Agostini (six goals) and David Perron (five goals, five games missed due to concussion-like symptoms), but they're being led on the shot chart by Steen (55 shots, three goals), Andy McDonald (51 shots, three goals), Brad Boyes (41 shots, two goals) and david Backes (38 shots, three goals). Obviously all four players have shooting percentages under 10%. The top scorers in the NHL are all taking a comparable number of shots per game to those four Blues, they're just all having success at a higher rate: Steven Stamkos, 15 goals on 67 shots, 22.4% shooting percentage; Alexander Semin, 13 goals on 61 shots, 21.3%; Sidney Crosby, 12 on 69, 17.4%; Daniel Sedin, 11 on 46, 23.9%.

How do you teach NHLers to hit the net better? They're doing the right things so far in getting chances and pucks on net, they just need to find a way to beat the goaltenders at a higher rate and many of the Blues supposed early season issues go away quickly.

The Blues have been an average-scoring team over the last few years, but the low scoring this season is an anomaly as it is lower than any of the previous years while the number of shots they have put on net are higher than ever before. Is there a sports psychologist in the house? Or a sniper? 

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Are theses Shots on Goal?

Or total shots attempted? The problem as I see it (for Boyes in particular) is an inability to hit the holes. Shots are either wide (or high) or into the goaltenders pads. Last time I checked none of the league’s goalie completely cover the 4×6, so there’s got to be some space to shoot. I can’t tell you how to fix it, but it has been the case for so long that its got to be something in the system. They need to finish their chances, either by burying the initial shot or working harder and/or being better positioned for the rebound.

Since we won’t/can’t pick up a top-tier goal scorer, how about we cough up a huge chunk of money to lure a retired sniper (Brett Hull, I’m looking at you) as a goal-scoring coach? As much as I love Scott Mellanby, I don’t think he’s going into the hall of fame on his goal-scoring ability.

The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong. But that's the way to bet. - Damon Runyon

by baroose on Nov 15, 2010 10:53 AM CST reply actions  

Shots On Goal.

Shots that miss the net or are blocked are not counted here.

by gallagher on Nov 15, 2010 10:56 AM CST up reply actions  

u

I am glad you wrote about this. It is the one thing that really scared me about this team. How do 30 and 40 goal scores completely forget how to finish? With the history of individual players in the lineup we should have one of the most feared offenses in the league from the blueline out.
These guys need a sports psychologist or a voodoo shamen, anything to break this curse that has to be over our team.

by Bleedbluecp2 on Nov 15, 2010 11:03 AM CST via mobile reply actions  

The thing that frustrates the hell out of me..

Is we have a great puck control system in the offensive zone.
We control the play. Yes we cycle and cycle and have players streaking across the slot and on the week side, but NEVER or hardly EVER do they ever CENTER THE PUCK to them.
They cycle, pass to the point for a shot or get a turnover and have to go get the puck again.
(which they actually do very well).

We need a playmaker who can actually center the puck for a quick shot in close when a player is actually there and ABLE to shoot.
Not skate around until they pass to the point or half boards for a semi open shot… or skate to the open slot when everyone has time to cover them or cutoff passing lanes.

THAT’s what pisses me off….
(having a case of the mondays.)
Fuck you Monday.

PC Load Letter? What the fuck does that mean?

by DanGNR on Nov 15, 2010 11:36 AM CST reply actions   1 recs

Rec'd

said better than I tried to

The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong. But that's the way to bet. - Damon Runyon

by baroose on Nov 15, 2010 11:39 AM CST up reply actions  

tnx

Finishing is def. key too… but ya, sorry I kinda said the same thing you were tryin to.

I have been wanting to make a nice well thought out fanpost about this. But motivation and frustration have me….. well…

PC Load Letter? What the fuck does that mean?

by DanGNR on Nov 15, 2010 11:50 AM CST up reply actions  

Something else to keep in mind

We’re playing with a LOT of injured players. Now I know this doesn’t explain our lack of production entirely, but it definitely has something to do with it. We’re missing one of our best offensive D-men (Cola) and Polak and Jackman had gotten a LOT better at setting up the rush from our own end. Oshie being out also really hurts, as he was a key setup player. That goes hand in hand with Perron being out. You dont’ have Oshie to dish and Perron to finish.

As for Boyes McDonald and Backes, I don’t know what the problem there is. I think if Boyes can’t get it together sooner than later, he won’t be wearing the Note much longer. As stated above, clearly its not getting more shots on goal that’s the problem.

Maybe we’re over complicating things (I’m looking at you powerplay) but something has to be done. Maybe they should just put up a piece of plywood with the holes cut in it and go nuts on that.

Barret Jackman is my hero.

Fueled. These new shores burn. Shadow, my sweet shadow, to you I look no more.

by BluesTiger on Nov 15, 2010 11:38 AM CST reply actions  

RE PP

How about we stop practicing the PP?
It ain’t helping….
Let the boy(e)s just play. Stop with the “System” or style… just go play… score goals, and WIN ! ! and call me when you get back. I enjoy our visits. (Schrutebucks for the reference).

PC Load Letter? What the fuck does that mean?

by DanGNR on Nov 15, 2010 11:53 AM CST up reply actions  

Traffic

Not sure if more traffic would completely solve the problem, but I don’t how it couldn’t help. Look at most goals scored and generally there scored off of an odd man rush, rebound or a screen. The Blues are taking lots of shots but they are too easy for the goalie to see. Lets make that harder.

by edb488 on Nov 15, 2010 11:58 AM CST reply actions  

Brad Boyes, 41 SoG . . . *RECORD SCRATCH*

What the . . . how the . . . huh?!

St. Louis Game Time . . . I need another beer.
And I can also write things in 140 characters or fewer.

by Donut King on Nov 15, 2010 2:09 PM CST reply actions  

Sports Psychology

As far as my limited knowledge of Sports Psychology and social psychology goes (I got my BA in Psychology), Boyes’ issues with scoring goals could be explained by conditioning problems. He need to cognitively restructure, meaning re-think the way he views his lack of success at scoring goals. Focusing on positives such as a clutch goal to get the Blues back in the game against Phoenix and his ability to get lots of good chances and shots should help maintain his confidence. Thus, instead of being conditioned to think negatively when he doesn’t score a goal, his psychological schema can be conditioned to focus on the more positive aspects, i.e. I made a good play to earn the scoring chance. As far as finishing goes, visualizing where you want the shot to go before hand often helps, especially on a breakaway or on a shot where you have time, such as on the PP.

I think Happy Meal has turned a corner in the past few games. I think he is the type of guy who needs to be that playmaker that makes good passes, especially in Oshie’s absence. This is what he has traditionally been best at anyways. If Andy scores around 20 goals but gets to around 40-50 assists, then that’s a pretty good season in my book.

Just my thoughts

by Cole Youngner on Nov 15, 2010 3:18 PM CST reply actions  

Visualizing...

To elaborate (I realized I didn’t word this quite correctly). You should visualize your self making the movement and shooting on the goalie (i.e. visualize you actually scoring/how you will score).

by Cole Youngner on Nov 15, 2010 3:20 PM CST up reply actions  

widen the god dayum net in practice

Let them reaquaint themselves with the joy of scoring. Kind of like a dog and their reward toy. They need to taste it.

Cant hep ya with boyes, that would keep a whole team of shrinks busy

Just a chew toy for the hockey gods

by spectr17 on Nov 15, 2010 3:23 PM CST via mobile reply actions  

Just send him to Dr. R. Lee Ermey

It worked for that guy who got sad around the color yellow.

by Paperwork Ninja on Nov 15, 2010 3:28 PM CST up reply actions  

Boyes is averaging a little more than two shots per game....

Some games wont reflect this because he will have taken shots that didnt hit the net, but from what I’ve noticed he doenst shoot alot. Certainly not enough to break the kind of slump its safe to assume he’s in.

To me, this directly ties in to the atrocious power play. I dont think their set up is right for the kind of players currently on the PP. I find Boyes in particular takes himself out of the play by moving to far towards the corner as opposed to higher on the side boards or even playing on the hashmarks like he used to. Theres all this talk about not having top end talent but this has been essentially the same power play for the 2 seasons and it has been more effective in the past.

I have heard it said that you shouldnt rely on your powerplay to win you games, and while this is technically true, special teams may alter the course of a game more now than at any other time throughout the history of hockey. Despite these string of losses, we have drawn a considerable amount of penalties and simply cant convert on these chances. Not saying the PP has been the reason we have lost games, but it could have been the reason we won a few of them for sure. Even when teams arent firing on all cylinders, if you can convert on the PP it will masks some of those weaknesses at even strength and possibly change the flow of the game.

Its amazing what a few injuries can do to the trajectory of a season.

by Blues88 on Nov 15, 2010 3:35 PM CST reply actions  

What's so wrong with being a defensive team?

I feel like we’re more of a defensive/ puck possession team. The reason our shots for/ shots against ratio is so good is because so much of the game has been spent in the other team’s zone. Let’s not kid ourselves into thinking we’re a skilled offensive team, we’re somewhat terrible at creating scoring chances with our puck possession, actually. I could care less though, as long as the team still wins playing the style it has been. It’s been fantastic to watch other teams fold as we send shift after shift of guys into their zone, bludgeoning them into submission. Losing Osh and Perry really hurts because it’s just impossible to get the puck from them, now the other team has so much more room to breathe.

by hisTALLness on Nov 15, 2010 5:39 PM CST reply actions  

What’s so wrong with being a defensive team?

Them shootem up games of the 80s Oilers was awful fun to watch. On the other hand I’d rather go into the playoffs with a low GAA and be scoring just enough to eek out victories. Good D, just like good pitching, wins trophies.

Just a chew toy for the hockey gods

by spectr17 on Nov 16, 2010 8:26 PM CST up reply actions  

Ask any of the Joel Quenneville-coached Blues teams

Especially the President’s Trophy winning team. They were awesome at low goals against. And they got their asses handed to them in the playoffs every year.

The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong. But that's the way to bet. - Damon Runyon

by baroose on Nov 17, 2010 7:31 AM CST up reply actions  

This thread is getting buried so not sure how much attention this will bring...

But weren’t we considered a “skill” team with smaller faster guys who could shoot and actually score?
Then when we got into the playoffs, we were out muscled and beat up….
That’s why we started drafting and acquiring big guys and such… right?
(That was such a long time ago now… wow…)

PC Load Letter? What the fuck does that mean?

by DanGNR on Nov 17, 2010 9:48 AM CST up reply actions  

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