The Blues currently stand at 25-23-9. They need 16 wins in their last 25 games to make it to the 41-game (or true .500) threshold. They are 8-9 since Payne took over as coach (Jan 2 - Feb 5).

For reference, last year, the Blues were 8-9 from Jan 2 through Feb 12, also going into a weekend game at home against Chicago (which they won). Last year, the Blues won 17 of their last 25 games, and a ridiculous 9 of their last 11 to squeak into the playoffs.

The Blues are on the same general trajectory as they were last year. But with the compressed schedule, it may only be tougher to replicate last year's amazing run.

A little bit more on the importance of 41 wins:

Combining all the losses, the records in the West look like:

San Jose 37-20*
Chicago 37-19*
Vancouver 34-22*
LA 35-22
Phoenix 34-22
Colorado 31-25
Nashville 31-25
Calgary 28-29
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Detroit 27-30
Dallas 25-32
Anaheim 27-31
Minnesota 28-29
St. Louis 25-32
Columbus 23-36
Edmonton 18-38

And in the East:

Washington 39-18*
New Jersey 35-20*
Buffalo 32-23*
Pittsburgh 35-22
Ottawa 33-25
Montreal 27-31
Philadelphia 28-27
Tampa Bay 24-32 (8th place in the east is very unlikely to make it to 41 wins this year)
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Florida 24-32
NY Rangers 25-33
Atlanta 24-31
Boston 23-32
NY Islanders 23-34
Toronto 18-39
Carolina 19-37

Your first response might be: holy crap, I wish the Blues were in the Eastern Conference.  With exception of the Tampa Bay Lightning, every other team currently in a playoff spot is at .500 or one game back of .500 (Calgary). Only one team on the cusp is out (Minnesota).

Looking at just wins for teams at the playoff cut-off over the last few years, (41 being .500)

West 08-09
8: Anaheim 42 wins
9: Minnesota 40 wins
10: Nashville 40 wins
11: Edmonton 38 wins

East 08-09
8: Montreal 41 wins
9: Florida 41 wins
10: Buffalo 41 wins
11: Ottawa 36 wins

West 07-08
8: Nashville 41 wins
9: Edmonton 41 wins
10: Chicago 40 wins

East 07-08
8: Boston: 41 wins
9: Carolina: 43 wins (lost out by 2 pts)
10: Buffalo: 39 wins

West 06-07
8: Calgary 43 wins
9: Colorado 44 wins (lost out by 1 pt)
10: St. Louis 34 wins

East 06-07
8: NYI 40 wins (the one exception to the 41-win rule)
9: Toronto 40 wins
10: Montreal 42 wins (lost out by 2 pts)
11: Carolina 40 wins

West 05-06
8: Edmonton 41 wins (had 13 OTLs)
9: Vancouver 42 wins
10: LA 42 wins
11: Minnesota 38 wins

East 05-06
8: Tampa 43 wins
9: Toronto 41 wins
10: Atlanta 41 wins

So 41 wins has been almost universally necessary to make it to the playoffs, and even that is no guarantee. In a tight division like the Western Conference this year, there is no doubt that 41 wins will be required, and even that may not be enough.

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Note:  One other thing that has jumped out at me at this point of the season is that nearly every team in 8th place or lower has 7+ OTLs. Go ahead and look, it's largely true, excepting the Wild (an aberration, perhaps) and the Oilers (too awful to make it to overtime).

The only top teams (7th place and higher) with 7+ OTLs are the Sabres and the Sharks, and I think we can forgive the Sharks that, seeing how they're barely in double digits in regulation losses.  For them, its probably more of a matter of their ability to force a potential loss into an overtime game.