Talk Me Down From the Ledge

…unless a defenseman is the best player on the board when the Blues’ pick comes up.

I’m very high on either Mikael Granlund from Finland, or Swiss forward Nino Niederreiter, who’s made the unusual (for a Schweizer) step of coming over here to play major junior with the Portland Winter Hawks.

I’ve said it repeatedly, here and elsewhere… the Blues really need to think heard anout combining their obvious preference for European forwards with the statistical success rate of major junior player, and focus on drafting Europeans who have come over to play in the Canadian Hockey League (QMJHL, OHL and WHL).

Niederreiter and Russian Alexander Burmistrov (playing in Barrie of the OHL, along with Alex Pietrangelo) are two very good examples of that kind of player… and both should theoretically be on the board when the Blues’ pick comes up this summer.

If Granlund is there too, I think I’d be strongly tempted to go for him over Niederreiter or Burmistrov, however. I really think that Granlund is just that good.

B.

Thank ya! Honestly, a good portion of it has just been keeping an eye on stuff, and reading your posts and kinda developing a similiar mindset.

Rundblad I’m willing to be patient for. I have a feeling it will still be a couple years before he’s over here. Cole on the other hand… the injury problems are starting to look like a very serious concern.

The Irish suck pretty hard this year. He ranks 10th in points for defensemen in the CCHA, but he has a better PPG than 4 or 5 of the guys in front of him.

You can see something similar in Cade Fairchild’s numbers, and that is a bit more reflective of his struggling. Still, Cade obviously has been trying to do too much for a team that just can’t get going.

As for Cole I’d be more worried if he stopped picking up points.

…there are a lot of elite forwards taken in the late first/ second round that came to form relatively quickly. Some examples that come to mind are Mike Richards, Paul Statsny, Cory Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, and David Booth.

While I don’t necessarily disagree with this, let’s think about “relatively quickly,” and some other factors, for a minute.

Booth (6’ 0, 212, 3rd overall 2004). Played four years at Michigan State, drafted after sophomore year, highest point total (36) in freshman year, 31 goals in third pro season.

Getzlaf (6’ 4, 221, 19th overall 2003). 68 points in draft year with Calgary (WHL), 75 points next season, turned pro at end of 2004-05 season, 82 points in third full pro season.

Perry (6’ 3, 209, 28th overall 2003). 78 points in draft year, drafted two spots ahead of where Blues drafted that year, 113 and 130 in junior next two years, 54 points in third pro season, 72 points in fourth pro season.

Richards (5’ 11, 195, 24th overall 2003). 87 points in draft year, drafted six spots ahead of where Blues drafted that year, 89 points following season, turned pro at end of 2004-05 season, 34 and 32 points in first two NH: seasons, 75 points in third NHL season.

Stastny (6’ 0, 205, 44th overall in 2005). 45 points in draft season, WCHA All-Rookie Team, Rookie Of The Year, NCAA All-Tournament Team that season, turned pro 2006-07, 78 points as a rookie.

Stastny is the only anomaly of that group in that he’s the only one that became an “elite” forward right off the hop in his NHL career, and I’d argue that his bloodlines have a lot to do with that.

The rest of the players you mention didn’t become near-point-per-game players or better until their third pro season. If you look at their scoring histories, you’ll see that Perron (now in his third pro season) is developing along a very similar path, and that Oshie and Berglund (both in their second pro seasons) are at about the same place in this point in their careers as the majority of the forwards you mention were in theirs.

I’d argue that Perron, Berglund and Oshie are pretty much dead even with these players in terms of their development at a similar pace.

B.