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Is A Run To The Playoffs Bad For The Blues?

I want the Blues to win as much as anyone. I want them to go on an amzing run over the last 13 games to make up the seven points and squeak into the playoffs. Especially when I think back to a year ago when the run that the Blues went on inspired hours of phone calls with my hockey buddies. Hours of calls that were basically us finding a million different ways to say, "Can you believe this?" over and over and over.

Because we couldn't believe it. It was an unreal ride as a fan. The team won must-win after must-win and piled up points and leap-frogged team after team. We got behind our players and propped them up. Chris Mason became The Beard To Be Feared. T.J. Oshie became the Mayor of St. Louis (and even got a real vote in the race). David Backes became bigger and badder than Chuck Norris. Patrik Berglund was our TechnoViking. The list goes on and on.

In that respect, it'd be great to go through it again. The team is essentially the same group that did it last year, better even. It'd be fun to be known again as the team that no one wants to play in the first round. The dangerous team. The hungry team.

But no matter how much I say that I want the Blues to do it again, I can't shake the feeling that I think it'd be bad for these guys to pull off the feat a second straight time. The problem I have with it is that I have heard the players say in the media that they really think they can do it again. I've heard from a person close to the players that one of them told him, "Don't worry. We did it last year and we'll do it again this year. We'll turn it on." 

And while I normally love that kind of confidence in hockey players, when I hear that from multiple players in the media and through friends of players I see it as more of a warning signal. These guys think that it's just that easy. They'll flip a switch. They'll have a meeting and decide to get it going. They'll turn it on. It's a dangerous pattern of thinking and it's a terrible precedent to set, especially for a young team.

When the team decided to fire Andy Murray earlier this year they let everyone inside and outside the organization know their emphasis: Youth shall be served on this team. The core players are all between the ages of 23 and 26 right now, with more youngsters likely to force their way onto the roster in the next couple years. Now is the time when the foundation of the franchise is being rebuilt and formed for the next 10 or more years. So far the lessons that are being impressed upon the youngsters is that hard work and teamwork will be rewarded.

The worst lesson they could possibly learn is that the first half of the season doesn't matter. That they're so good that they can simply wait until the last possible second and then 'turn it on' and make a run up the standings into a playoff berth. It's dangerous and stupid and exactly the kind of thing that could seep into the corporate culture of the franchise and guarantee yet another long string of meaningless playoff berths that have no teeth or intensity. Another reason for the franchise to fall far short of its stated goal of parading down Market Street one day. We all saw what that miracle playoff run garnered last season: Not one playoff win. They'd spent everything they had in just getting to the fight and they were too spent to throw a punch once they got there.

These are formative times for this franchise. The lessons learned by the Oshies and Perrons and Johnsons and Polaks and Backes and McClements and Berglunds and Ellers and Pietrangelos and others will become the fabric of what this team is for the next decade. Forgive me if it sounds like I'm rooting against them, but I hope that the lesson learned this year is that you can't take anything for granted. You have to work hard from Game One through Game 82.

Last year's second half run was an amazingly fun time, but it was a fluke. Let's hope it stays that way. 

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in a word- no

if ownership makes money only in the extra play zone, going for the extra games has to be the priority and hope of all involved. a good pick that takes 5 years to develope and even then needs to be surrounded by a solid supporting cast isn’t a substatute for cost vs revenue problems. besides which, as we will see with ej, that pick still gets payed, and quite a bit, before he is ready to be the stud he is designed to become.

how bad off are the blues?

no idea i know last season forbes ran a glowing report on the health of the nhl and we all know the cap went UP this season, however the blues debt structure (if i remember correctly) was horrendous. one of the worse in the league, and the forbes showed operating, not total costs/revenues so that skewed the usablitiy quite a bit, the preds were shown significantly negative on forbes but had reported a modest profit last season in their local papers despite ownership issues.

so anywayz.

fandom question, but realistically it should be a business question, cos that is what a playoff push affects the most. bottom lines.

if the business model stresses the push, and we make it, granted there are still massive questions. making the playoffs is not “job accomplished”

again, what about mason. he is inconsistant and a slow starter at best. but is he to be a rewarded blues if he makes it in again? does ej get even money monies if he has a successful playoff game or two under his belt before the contract? does pk’s unfortunate blues tenure mean the blues should be shy about older ufa’s?

making the playoffs gets the owners money. but it can also have contract issues that should be carefully investigated. if we know anything about the blues, making the playoffs for 20 years, missign the playoffs for 3, or barely making the playoffs. the blues must make exceptionally smart contract offers to be able to “grow the brand” and hope to be able to have the players, money, picks to make moves during a season to fix problems that arrive.

so as fans, yes certainly concerns and valid ones about the effort and consistancy of the team and individuals on the team, but those answers are only solved with an atmosphere of winning. winning late, winning early, winning on the road- whatever. i’m not sure anyone loses their way into the cup.

A strong anvil fears no hammer

by Childhood Trauma on Mar 17, 2010 12:54 PM CDT reply actions  

forbes

http://www.forbes.com/lists/2009/31/hockey-values-09_NHL-Team-Valuations_Revenue.html

blues showed a slight loss, but a team value gain larger than the loss, he big problem is a 68% debt. THAT is why the blues will attempt to get a higher ticket price in place, not ej :)

the nhl as a whole

 he NHL turned a profit for its 2008-‘09 season. Forbes’ research revealed a operating profit, of $6.1 million.

this is its highest figure. Additionally, the average NHL franchise’s worth is reported to be $223 million, which is $3 million more than the 2007-’08 season. Revenue from non-hockey events in NHL arenas also increased by $70 million to $2.82 billion.

A strong anvil fears no hammer

by Childhood Trauma on Mar 17, 2010 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

They want higher ticket prices because they want more money

It has nothing to do with their player costs. Their costs for the RFAs coming up are essentially fixed. The fans wouldn’t stand it if they didn’t get deals done so there’s basically no point in even considering that option (in econ terms: the marginal revenue loss would greatly exceed the marginal savings). Whether they charge more or not, they are going to have to pay Johnson/Perron etc.

They think they can get more money (even if decreased attendance) by raising ticket prices. In a business sense, sellouts to games mean they aren’t charging enough and they are averaging 98.6% capacity on the season. On top of that, the fan expectation for next year (at least as far as season ticket holders go) is probably that of improvement. More people are willing to go see a better team, thus they can charge more.

Not afraid to nitpick

by joker24 on Mar 17, 2010 5:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

Whoops mis-read you

Even still their debt payments are also likely fixed going into the future. Bottom line is they want higher ticket prices because they want more revenue and it has little to do with costs.

Not afraid to nitpick

by joker24 on Mar 17, 2010 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

payments are

its the percent (68) that is extreme and needs to be controlled going forward. sean is on the blues players we expect to be blues for a while, and he may be right in accountability needing to take place on day 1. the team ownership though, is hopefully an extreme long term situation and i’d really like for them to be in a solid fiscal position which i currently don’t think they are in.

and they will TRY to raise prices :) yes they are a nhl monopoly in town but they don’t own the entertainment market. they have limited ability to set prices, and if they COULD charge more, debt and player salaries and winning wouldnt matter either. if they could get twice as much per ticket today, our tickets would be twice as much. end o story :)

A strong anvil fears no hammer

by Childhood Trauma on Mar 17, 2010 5:50 PM CDT up reply actions  

Playoff hopes dead

I am an avid Blues fan, but the trend they are showing is that there will be no playoffs for us this year. We are about 10 points behind a playoff spot with 13 games to go. Even if we won every single game, that would require the other teams ahead of us to lose at least 5 games. For one, the Blues have not shown at any time this year that they could put together this type of winning streak. I seriously doubt that any for the 3 or 4 teams ahead of us can lose 5 games in a 13 game period. I am not saying it wont happen, but statistically we are now at the shot in a dark chance. I would rather us just work on the game in general and work on getting this team to play as a unit and start to work on next year. I think your article is right on the money with the fact that this team can not wait until the final part of the season and try to make a miracle push. It would be better to be a consistent team and get rid of some of the dead weight on our team and bring up the rest of our prospects. No matter what happens though, you can bet that I will still be there cheering for the Blues and hoping that they can win the rest of the games they have left.

by mtscreator on Mar 17, 2010 1:14 PM CDT reply actions  

I am pretty close to you

I keep looking at the numbers and I think it is logistically impossible for the Blues to make the playoffs. But I do agree that missing them may not be all bad, the kids will have to learn that things won’t be just handed to them based on what we think they will do later. They have to earn things now or don’t.

At the very least I can root for Cal and Gary cos I will dance with joy when Fuck Detroit is on the outside no matter where the Blues are.

by Bleedbluecp2 on Mar 17, 2010 1:25 PM CDT via mobile reply actions  

As much as it kills me to say

I have to agree. I don’t think they have it in them. Unless there is some AMAZING hockey played by us, and abysmal hockey played by everyone else, I think we’re screwed. The fact that we lost to MINNESOTA really kind of tempered my hopes. Don’t get me wrong, I bleed blue as much as anyone here, but I don’t see it happening. At least our draft pick will by higher though.

Also as said above, I’m going for Cal and Gary. I can’t wait to see the city of Detroit collapse on itself like a black hole when the wings don’t make it.

Barret Jackman is my hero.

Fueled. These new shores burn. Shadow, my sweet shadow, to you I look no more.

Crosby and Malkin. Two girls, one cup.

by BluesTiger on Mar 17, 2010 1:38 PM CDT up reply actions  

Even if the Blues win 13 of 13 I think they will eventually learn that “turning it on” simply doesn’t work in the playoffs. They will be exhausted from gutting out so many games in a row and will not have built good habits from a solid years worth of work, and will lost in the first round.

But as long as the young core is consistently improving, they should be better next year. Bringing in a couple UFA vets as leaders might help, but so will not having golf cart injuries. A good coach can show the players that you need to show up early in the season too, so I’m not too worried about next year for the Blues.

I agree totally about the stupidity of the average person. Horrifyingly, nearly 50% of people are even stupider!

by Bman21212 on Mar 17, 2010 2:37 PM CDT reply actions  

Y'know, I'd like this team to fuck shit up . . .

go on a tear and kill everyone. In the immortal words of one Herman Edwards . . . “”http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IMk5sMHj58I" target="new">You PLAY to WIN the GAME. HELLO?! You PLAY to WIN the GAME! We don’t PLAY to just PLAY!"

But hey, it’s looking like that’s not working. If the team lays down in the last 13, it will show up in ticket sales next year, so they can’t afford to do that. But whether it’s now or in a week, it’s looking like it’s about time to figure out who’s going to be part of next year’s team.

But if they go and fuck shit up and make the playoffs . . . I’ll take it. And that’s not bad for business.

St. Louis Game Time . . . I need another beer.

by Donut King on Mar 17, 2010 3:11 PM CDT reply actions  

Tomorrow is a brand new day.

Next season our young promising players will be a year older and a year better, everyone we base the team around is still going to be younger than their prime. We will lose a few non factor players and pick up some more rookies that will be the future of the team. Time itself will make this team better, im not worried about not making it this year. It would be fun but its still a bright future, and who knows, next season could be the one.

He raged at the world, at his family, at his life. But mostly he just raged.

by Icion on Mar 17, 2010 3:20 PM CDT reply actions  

Honestly I couldnt agree with this article more, its something I’ve found myself thinking about often over the last month or so. Of course its bad for business to not be in the playoffs but if our missing the playoffs now means us making the playoffs on a more consistent basis in the future it could be a costly, but eventually worthwhile lesson. Like rich folk say, you have to spend money to make money, and the poor version, you have to break a few eggs to make an omlet.

Im still sticking with this is year three of a five year build, and while by year three there should probaby be playoffs, it will pretty much be a trifle if at the end of year five you have a team who can compete for one of top 4 spots in the conference for an extended period of time.

by bzgea2 on Mar 17, 2010 4:08 PM CDT reply actions  

I'm torn.....

Not torn as in one of Carnie’s balloon knots but torn on what is best for the Blues as far as making the playoffs. Any ice time you get in the big show is valuable, especially to a team as green as the Blues. The more the better even if you go out in the first couple rounds. It’s a completely different game in the post season and we need some PO time under our belts for a run at the cup in a few years. That’s the plan right?

On the other hand I get Sean’s point of them backsliding early on and thinking they can just mash the pedal and get in right as they slam the door closed. Bad habit to get into and hard to break. To me mailing it in like that is a breakdown in team leadership. Good team leaders like Messier or Barc Plager wouldn’t let that shit happen on their watch. Why is it happening in STL?

Just a chew toy for the hockey gods

by spectr17 on Mar 17, 2010 6:49 PM CDT reply actions  

On the other hand I get Sean’s point of them backsliding early on and thinking they can just mash the pedal and get in right as they slam the door closed. Bad habit to get into and hard to break. To me mailing it in like that is a breakdown in team leadership. Good team leaders like Messier or Barc Plager wouldn’t let that shit happen on their watch. Why is it happening in STL?

I totally agree, but nothing they can do about it this season. The best they can hope for is that the players are right and they can turn it on enough to squeak into the playoffs. But next year something got to give. Hopefully the coaching change can help fix that next year, and I still hope we land some some smart veteran UFA next year.

I agree totally about the stupidity of the average person. Horrifyingly, nearly 50% of people are even stupider!

by Bman21212 on Mar 17, 2010 8:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm more or less in this camp

I’m bothered by the fact that the team didn’t take the correct lesson from last year. As stated above,

It’s a completely different game in the post season
and they should have learned that by getting swept. I wish we were further along the rebuilding process, and we should be. After the ‘05-’06 disaster, I looked at the pieces we were building, and said, “2010 will be our year”. They took a step backward in ‘07-’08, and I pushed my prediction back to 2011. Now we’ve taken another step backward, and don’t even try to tell me we’re still rebuilding. The team NEEDED to improve this year, and they have not. I haven’t looked at all the stats, and I don’t need to. The only stat that matters is W-L-O and they have NOT improved that this year. Before the season I daresay we all thought this team was a lock to make the playoffs. Now it looks like I won’t need to save my spot on Market St. til June 2012 at least.

At least by then I’ll be old enough to park in the handicapped slots.

The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong. But that's the way to bet. - Damon Runyon

by baroose on Mar 18, 2010 2:45 PM CDT reply actions  

what concerns me

on a level higher than that of the players, is the brass thougtht they had one of the greatest teams in the league this season.

we should have made the playoffs. it would have been a tough race but somewhere between 6th and 8th should be where we are sitting at today. but we didnt’ come close to even that mark.

 but who is deciding we should be a home team during the first round?

that is why i kinda went team first in the thinking, get ownership happy, get management skilled, get contracts under controll. i think we are on a rollercoaster till ALL that happens.

build from net out? no. you build from ownership down to the skate sharpener THEN jump from the net out.. until the brass can accurately asses their teams talents, needs, and strengths. we ain’t in for nothing other than broken seasons. post OR regular.

“they should have learned that by getting swept” who they? if they are the same they i think they should be, they didn’t learn much :)

is LOSING a chance at the playoffs going to teach “them” more than making it?

I really don’t know. it might squash their dreams of having a 101 point team already on the ice, but what will they replace their dreams with? nash? rucinsky? some 6’ 11" guy we draft who comes into camp 5’ 10"? EH.

jerry mac said show me the money. I want the blues to learn to show me the players…

A strong anvil fears no hammer

by Childhood Trauma on Mar 18, 2010 4:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

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