Trade Talks: Who the Blues Won't Trade

by gallagher on Feb 8, 2012 10:01 AM CST

If you've been on any of the message boards or NHL rumor sites or other Blues sites then you've seen the rumors: The Blues are looking for an offensive upgrade (some say scorer, I say playmaker). In exchange, they are willing to give up Patrik Berglund, Chris Stewart and Ben Bishop.

Here's why that won't happen.

Under the current ownership group and the reign of John Davidson as president, the Blues have made only a few trades that were not of the Sellers-At-The-Deadline variety. Among them:

Trading Doug Weight to Anaheim for Andy McDonald (2007)
Acquiring Carlo Colaiacovo and Alexander Steen from Toronto for Lee Stempniak (2008)
Acquiring Jaroslav Halak from Montreal for Lars Eller and Ian Schultz (2010)
Acquiring Chris Stewart and Kevin Shattenkirk along with a 2nd rd pick from Colorado for Jay McClement, Erik Johnson and a 1st rd pick (2011)

The common element of every one of these trades is that the Blues traded away assets of value. Better said, they traded away assets that were at their highest value. The rule to playing the stock market, and the NHL Trading Game, is to buy low and sell high. When a stock (player) is at his highest value, sell (trade) it. When the value goes down, the other guy is stuck with it. Likewise, buy (acquire) a stock (player) when the other guy has given up on it. When the value (player) explodes, so does your gain.

At the time that the Blues got Andy McDonald from Anaheim, he had 10 points in 44 games. Doug Weight, while not any better offensively, was seen as a veteran who could contribute in the locker room and on the power play. Weight went on to contribute some points for Anaheim, play a few playoff games and bolt for the Islanders in free agency. McDonald, of course, became a top-six offensive player for the Blues who is very dangerous, if injury prone of late.

The Maple Leafs coveted Stempniak's scoring touch. In St. Louis he had threatened to become a 30-goal guy and showed flashes of breaking out again in 2008. In exchange, the Blues took Colaiacovo and Steen off Toronto's hands, two players who management and fans had grown tired of cheering on. Both former first round picks, Colaiacovo was injury prone and Steen was becoming a bottom-six player. Obviously, the Blues sold high and bought low on this trade as Stempniak bottomed out in Toronto (25 goals in 123 games) while Colaiacovo and Steen turned into solid, core players for St. Louis.

Halak was acquired at a high value, an anomaly for this Blues Braintrust, but they also knew that the Canadiens were in a bad spot because they had to trade either Halak or Carey Price. Keeping both made no sense and any offer they would get from NHL teams would reflect that. The Blues wisely traded Lars Eller to the Canadiens, moving a good young former first round player with lots of upside. Eller has played a lot of games for Montreal and has been solid, if unspectacular (minus his four-goal game this year). He'll undoubtedly be a good NHLer. Halak, on the other hand, is the Blues starter and (with Brian Elliott to push him) could become a franchise cornerstone. If this trade was offered today, Halak's value would be too high and Eller's would be too low to make it go.

Is there a better example of selling high than trading Erik Johnson away last February? Revisionist historians be damned, when that trade was announced, the reaction was fast and it was furious (they should make a movie named that). Johnson was the team's franchise blueliner - a player who could play in all three zones effectively and take over games. Chris Stewart seemed to only score against the Blues and who had ever heard of a Shattenkirk? One year removed, no one on the St. Louis side of the trade is calling for a do-over. Alex Pietrangelo, whose play made Eeej available, has become the franchise defender who is excellent in all three zones. Shattenkirk has become his 1A. Stewart, who exploded last year, has frustrated this season, but is still more valuable than fan favorite (of some) Jay McClement, whose role was capably absorbed by Vladimir Sobotka.

All are examples of selling high and buying low, even the Halak move, whose value was decreased by his team's non-secret that they had to move him. The Blues do not make knee-jerk trades and they do not sell low and they do not buy high.

Why then, would they trade away Berglund or Stewart? Bishop, similarly, will not be simply given away.

Patrik Berglund has NHL point totals of 47, 26, 52 and is now on pace for 31 points in 2012. If the Blues offered him to you, would you give them fair value for him?
Chris Stewart has NHL goal scoring totals of 11 (in 53 games), 28, 28 and is on pace for 16 in 2012. If the Blues offered him to you in a trade, would you want him as a potential 40-goal scorer or would you say, "So, he's an overpaid third liner. What else will you add?"
Ben Bishop has shown an ability to dominate in the AHL. In the NHL, he is 4-5-1 with a 2.83 GAA and a 89.1% save percentage. How much value would you say he's worth if the Blues offered him to you?

The Blues, I think, would love to add a playmaker. If they call a team looking to get one, it's going to have to be a guy who is currently underperforming compared to his salary. Only then will they be able to interest them in their own underperforming, overpaid guys like Berglund and Stewart. And that may not get it done, either. Bishop becomes a throw-in at that point and his trade simultaneously hurts your AHL affiliate's playoff chances (and you do want your AHL youngsters getting playoff experience).

If the Blues go after a rental player like Ray Whitney or Ales Hemsky (please, no), those teams will be happy to acquire a Stewart or Berglund. Trading away those guys at low-end value for a rental player? Those are the kinds of trades that come back to bite you. The Blues are not a Stanley Cup shoo-in who need a rental guy to push them over the top. The Blues are a playoff team with long run potential: acquiring a core player who can stick around for a couple years is more what they need. Guys like Paul Stastny, Ryan Getzlaf or maybe even Derek Roy could possibly jump-start their seasons here and help propel the Blues. Those guys will not be acquired for underperforming one-time first-rounders and a potential UFA AHL goalie.

Unless, of course, Doug Armstrong has perfected the jedi mind trick even better than we thought. In which case, come get your underperformers! Step right up and keep the line civil, people!

I hope a good trade happens. I hope it includes one of the three guys mentioned above. I doubt it happens in exchange for guys who currently are on the verge of being healthy scratches.

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Comments

The nubers on Bishop are a bit unjustified......

Look at the teams he played on….we were bottom feeders……I think hes had time to mature and season and with his play i think hes saying “I want my chance”…which is what you ask for….So I think his value is way more than just the sum of his NHL numbers thus far……But I do agree that by trading him you stand to hurt Peoria….But man would I like to see a guy like Stasny or Parise in a Note……

Maybe we go into the playoffs with what we have this year and make a run at Zach in the off season….what with all that cap room and all…..Hopefully by then Stillman and his group will own the team and they can spend a little of that Enterprise money…..

I still maintain Vladimir Konstantinov got what he deserved...If you can't handle that then kiss my ass......

"I've got a bad feeling about this..."

by dablues7 on Feb 8, 2012 11:07 AM CST reply actions

ok then just pretend you get bishop

for 3 months

NOW how much is he worth to you.

he can be unrestricted this off season.

there are MAYBE 2 teams that can change him into a restricted free agent. maybe.

And a harvest of righteousness is grown from the seed of peace planted by peacemakers.

by Childhood Trauma on Feb 8, 2012 1:29 PM CST up reply actions

You dont think if a team trades for him....

they wont try to sign him to a 1 or 2 year deal based on what they may give up for him??

I still maintain Vladimir Konstantinov got what he deserved...If you can't handle that then kiss my ass......

"I've got a bad feeling about this..."

by dablues7 on Feb 8, 2012 4:26 PM CST up reply actions

I'm sure they'd try

Ben may see more dollars on the UFA market, though.

No beer and no TV make Homer...something something.

by Poor College Student on Feb 8, 2012 4:28 PM CST via Android app up reply actions

THIS ^^^^

yes im sure the cardinals will give pujols well over a 100 million

really really really sure

but not sure albert wont go free agent and find more :)

heck at worse he can accept the cardinals insulting offer.

the word exists in hockey in signing someoen for 2 months who can be an ufa. and that wored is “rental” and hte rental value of a mostly untried ahl goalie is pretty damn low imho.

And a harvest of righteousness is grown from the seed of peace planted by peacemakers.

by Childhood Trauma on Feb 8, 2012 5:51 PM CST up reply actions

Goalie market's really insecure though

If a team acquired him and offered him a decent contract, he’d probably sign right there just for the security, rather than risking an Elliott-in-Colorado experience that has him fighting for summer jobs and possibly ending up in the AHL (or worse, KHL) again.

That said I agree he shouldn’t have much trade value either way.

Lighthouse Hockey: A flute with no holes is not a flute. A Dane with no holes is Frans Nielsen.

by Dominik on Feb 8, 2012 8:20 PM CST up reply actions

Sorry, Gallagher

I don’t disagree with you often, but there are a multitude of options in which any of those underachievers can be sent out for a top 6 player or even a top tier playmaker.

NHL ’12 told me so.

No beer and no TV make Homer...something something.

by Poor College Student on Feb 8, 2012 11:29 AM CST reply actions

pah

nhl12 tells me i can win all day with kane and toews and peluso on a hut line

and that is EVANDER and DAVID.

now evander, i’d actually wouldn’t mind in the note, come to think about.

DAMN YOU NHL12 you are right again!!!!

And a harvest of righteousness is grown from the seed of peace planted by peacemakers.

by Childhood Trauma on Feb 8, 2012 1:31 PM CST up reply actions

If he can check the attitude at the door...

… and help the Blues win with winning, I can cope.

Thrashing the Blues - No, I'm not re-naming it.
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by hildymac on Feb 8, 2012 4:54 PM CST up reply actions

that.is. awesome.

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by HockeyHippie on Feb 9, 2012 12:13 AM CST up reply actions

I would put together a bigger package...

… But the problem with making a trade right now is that very few players on this team are really having great years. Hell, let’s list the players who are having years that could warrent being “Sell High” options.

David Backes: Having a Selke season, the C, and the face of the franchise. I don’t think anyone we could get in return would actually match Backes’s value. Verdict: Nope

TJ Oshie: Been something approaching a 1st line player all year, and his non-stop motor fits the “Work your Ass Off” system. Hard to invision a player being available that makes dealing Oshie. Verdict: Nope

David Perron: Much like Oshie, seems to be a perfect guy in the Hitchcock system. Has a solid case as being the Blues best forward since he returned from injury. Once more, why trade someone who probably will be a 30 goal, 70 point player for a different one? Verdict: Nay

Vladimir Sobotka: Iunno, I think his value is about as high it could be. On the other hand, is once again a great player for this type of setup, but as a 4th line C, Scott Nichol could take over. I don’t want to deal Vodka, but he probably has at least the value McClement had Verdict: It’s possible.

Alex Pietrangelo/Kevin Shattenkirk: I’ve actually been hearing that we might trade one of these 2 for someone like Rick Nash or even Jeff Carter. Um… Why? Yeah, these guys value is incredibly high, but why would you lock yourself into a bad long term contract while giving up such a good player? Verdict: No. Just No.

Barrett Jackman: Now, I don’t like saying this. But Jackman probably makes more sense than anyone else. While I think we should re-sign Jack, trading him for as part of a package to, say, the Ducks could make sense. Jack has had a great season, probably his best since the lockout. If you want a trade high, Jack makes sense Verdict: A pretty good option.

Halak/Elliot: Trading either at this point is moronic. You don’t trade goalies with sub 2 GAA. Esspecially since they work so well under competition. Verdict: No

Ofcourse prospects could play in. I think trading Tank or Schwartz is a mistake, but Bishop makes sense. Ofcourse if you want to go “Sell High”, Ty Rattie could be an interesting option too.

Is willing to go to the mattresses with the lot of yous.

by Novacain on Feb 8, 2012 11:31 AM CST via mobile reply actions

Uh huh huh huh Butthead laugh

You said bigger package.

by TheFlyingCavallinis on Feb 8, 2012 12:00 PM CST up reply actions

Who doesn't love a bigger package?

Is willing to go to the mattresses with the lot of yous.

by Novacain on Feb 8, 2012 12:05 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

the UPS guy? what did i win?

Just a chew toy for the hockey gods

by spectr17 on Feb 8, 2012 5:18 PM CST via Android app up reply actions

Yeah I think Bishop's numbers will give us a better sell high oppurtunity then we expect and I think you're right on Jackman being the sell high guy

I think that’s the package we may see moved

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by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Feb 8, 2012 1:07 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Wow, I just realized that this would make us buyers trying to use two guys who need contracts

We probably aren’t making any splash at the deadline this year without a bad move. Ouch

"IF CARDS CAN SIGN SUPPAN THEY CAN GIVE ME A HOME"

by Buddhasillegitimatechild38 on Feb 8, 2012 1:35 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Ty Rattie

I’ve been to see Ty Rattie play at home for his Portland Winterhawks twice now. (I wore my Backes jersey in a Blackhawk logo’d out crowd) He’s popular with the fans, a constant threat when on the ice, and solid fundamentals guy. Speed and hands look great.

He’s NOT a CONTACT guy though. He would get swallowed up just in a Blues skate, if he was called up right now. I think he’s got tons of upside, but he needs to be brought to the AHL, with its older more experienced players. After a Peoria stint, we’d see his true value (either as prospect of trade value)

by DrunkenSailor on Feb 8, 2012 7:10 PM CST up reply actions

I would put together a bigger package...

David Backes: Having a Selke season, the C, and the face of the franchise. I don’t think anyone we could get in return would actually match Backes’s value. Verdict: Nope

Halak/Elliot: Trading either at this point is moronic. You don’t trade goalies with sub 2 GAA. Esspecially since they work so well under competition. Verdict: No

Ofcourse prospects could play in. I think trading Tank or Schwartz is a mistake, but Bishop makes sense. Ofcourse if you want to go “Sell High”, Ty Rattie could be an interesting option too.

Is willing to go to the mattresses with the lot of yous.

by Novacain on Feb 8, 2012 11:33 AM CST via mobile reply actions

blah, double post.

Is willing to go to the mattresses with the lot of yous.

by Novacain on Feb 8, 2012 11:37 AM CST via mobile up reply actions

I still believe Bishop will be moved at the deadline.

But anyone who believes it would be a straight-up trade is legitimately insane. Not only would you get nothing for him, no one would want him straight-up anyway.

I think we’re looking at a package deal here. Now, what that package includes other than Bishop (because I have a weird feeling that if Berglund or Stewart were involved, it would be an either/or and not both, but then again it would probably be neither so who the fuck cares, right?) is beyond me, and probably beyond all of us.

Columbus is the team that fits the best need for a guy like Bishop, but anyone who believes Howson is trading with Armstrong is also crazy. There’s a good reason why trades rarely happen within the division, especially during the season and at the deadline.

So perhaps there’s no suitor for a guy like Bishop right now, but or whatever reason, I have a weird feeling he’s gone. This is so weird. Anyway, I trust Army makes the right decision.

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by Donut King on Feb 8, 2012 1:34 PM CST reply actions

Are we all really ready to give up on Stewart?

It’s obviously been a shitty year, but it’s only been a little over a half of a season. I’m not ready to write him off as the next Boyes quite yet.

by Bluesforever on Feb 8, 2012 1:46 PM CST reply actions

thank you.

In these bodies we will live, in these bodies we will die. Where you invest your love, you invest your life.

by ilikeboyes on Feb 8, 2012 5:19 PM CST up reply actions

hes staying here

theres no way they trade him right now. i think it’s time to put all that stuff to rest.

www.twitter.com/ian_reynolds

by Boomer9393 on Feb 8, 2012 8:10 PM CST up reply actions

exactly

at the very least, we treat him like Oshie and give him a “prove it” contract. we could get a 30-40g guy for pretty cheap next year.

www.marsbands.com

by Mars on Feb 9, 2012 1:03 PM CST up reply actions

Rentals suck.

So do “splashes”.

The Blues’ window of contention is just starting to open. Holding the course is more important than short-sighted trades with no long-term benefit.

I’ll be satisfied if the Blues do nothing at the deadline.

by BleedBlue42 on Feb 8, 2012 3:50 PM CST reply actions 1 recs

I really want to say that.....

yet at the same time We are REALLy starting to see were just a piece or 2 from turning the corner….and I would hate to have this awesome year just to crap out in the first round because we couldnt score more than a goal a game……

Im torn…..I hate being torn…….FUCK DETROIT…….now I feel a little better

I still maintain Vladimir Konstantinov got what he deserved...If you can't handle that then kiss my ass......

"I've got a bad feeling about this..."

by dablues7 on Feb 8, 2012 4:37 PM CST up reply actions

If that happens, it happens.

There’s more offense in the pipeline. Pietrangelo and Shattenkirk have both played less than 150 NHL games, and Cole is waiting in Peoria for his shot. The Blues look good in net and on the blueline for years to come. Those are the hard parts of the puzzle. Scoring will come; maybe not this year, but it will come.

You don’t break up three-of-a-kind in hopes of drawing to a flush. There are more hands to be played after this one.

by BleedBlue42 on Feb 9, 2012 12:28 AM CST up reply actions

this time, "next year" is actually fun to say

the blues will have the tank, a healthy A.Mac, a man with something to prove in stewart, two awesome goalies, and an owner. the blues have been preaching patience, and they have stuck to the plan, built from within (for the most part), and it has paid off so far. if we have that piece or two in Tank and Jaden, why give stuff away this year that will hurt us in the coming years?

The absolute earliest the Blues should start thinking about moving and tweaking the roster is next year’s trade deadline, not this year.

The Blues are awesome this year, obviously, but they would need Berglund, Stewart, and probably two other guys brought in from somewhere to have enough offense to be legit Cup contenders. And if they happen to bring in 2 people, they still have to give up something, meaning you’re no better off than before.

Moral of the story,
Stay the course.

www.marsbands.com

by Mars on Feb 9, 2012 1:16 PM CST up reply actions

We'll have an owner?

I’ll believe it when I see it… as Mr. King would say as well…

PC Load Letter? What the fuck does that mean?

by DanGNR on Feb 9, 2012 4:13 PM CST up reply actions

agreed.

Stewart will produce after he survives the trade deadline. His confidence is suffering right now. Even when he’s 1st line with Backes, you can see he really is trying to impress, not focussed on just playing.

by DrunkenSailor on Feb 8, 2012 7:25 PM CST up reply actions

'' I’ll be satisfied if the Blues do nothing at the deadline. ''

We’re your Game Time Prospect Department, and we heartily endorse this message.

Of course, if the Blues could somehow swing a deal to get a couple of extra high picks — another first and another second, say — that would have us shuddering in near-orgasmic bliss.

"If we do not prepare for ourselves the role of the hammer, there will be nothing left but that of the anvil."

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by Tomorrows Blues on Feb 8, 2012 10:25 PM CST up reply actions

i, on the other hand

have always felt any realistic change at post season glory MUST be attacked with ALL the skills of upper management and every weapon at every level in the organization.

what if THIS is the next year we have been waiting for since 1967 and we pretend it isn’t so save money/youth/work?

i have faith that the blues would do an excellent job if unconstrained, i am concerned that they are constrained by the situation.

And a harvest of righteousness is grown from the seed of peace planted by peacemakers.

by Childhood Trauma on Feb 9, 2012 1:32 PM CST up reply actions

One of those skills currently possessed by upper management...

… is patience, a quality that’s been virtually nonexistent in Blues’ history.

What if the Butcher/Quinn trade never happened? Would the Blues have had enough scoring depth to get past Jon Casey? What if THAT was the year, and it got screwed up by one move too many?

Sometimes the right move is to make no move at all. If I’m going to trust Armstrong (which I am), then I’m going to have to believe that whatever happens – even if nothing happens – is the best possible option.

by BleedBlue42 on Feb 9, 2012 3:48 PM CST up reply actions

I'm pretty sure we just got referenced on ESPN Radio

Farr just asked TPC (who has been driving me nuts lately) if the Blues need a scorer or playmaker. TPC says scorer. Someone asks if the Blues need more shots. TPC says no, just more quality shots. Farr comments “Isn’t that a playmaker’s job?” And TPC sputtered with no answer for a while.

Quite entertaining.

Is willing to go to the mattresses with the lot of yous.

by Novacain on Feb 8, 2012 4:41 PM CST via mobile reply actions

Gallagher definitely got referenced on the RFT today

http://blogs.riverfronttimes.com/dailyrft/2012/02/blues_defeat_senators_3_1.php

Though I think the person who came up with the “playmaker not scorer” idea who gallagher couldn’t remember was some guy in a JR chat last Thursday.

by Bluesforever on Feb 8, 2012 5:48 PM CST up reply actions

There is no magic among the lines right now

No Gretky n Kuri, no Selanne and Kariya, no Bossy & Trottier, no Orr & Espo, no Oates and Hullie. You saw a little magic with Oshie and DP57 but it was just glimpses. It’s hard to predict who will have the magic, it just happens. Like blind dates, you can’t force the magic.

Just a chew toy for the hockey gods

by spectr17 on Feb 8, 2012 10:31 PM CST up reply actions

ummm, roofies?

+++St Louis Blues. St. Louis Cardinals. Denver Broncos. +++
also Denver Nuggets, Univ of Denver Pioneers hockey and lacrosse as well as Colorado Mammoth and Colorado Outlaws lacrosse

by HockeyHippie on Feb 9, 2012 12:17 AM CST up reply actions