FanPost

5 year shooting results

Shooting Variation

Expectation

If a team scores on 8.0% of their shots and takes 1800 shots, they generally will not score exactly 144 goals. It's like flipping a coin. Flip a coin 100 times and you might get heads 55 times instead of 50 times. The expected range of goals scored is easy to calculate as is the expected range of observed shooting percentages. Here the expected range of goals scored (the 95% confidence interval) is 122 to 166. The expected range of observed shooting percentage is 6.77% to 9.22%. If you accumulate 5 seasons, the range narrows to 7.44% to 8.55%

I pulled the 5v5 shooting data from David Johnson's site Hockeyanalytics.com from 2007-08 through 2011-12. I left out last year's short season.

Cumulative data

Team

GF

SF

SF%

Pittsburgh

804

9223

0.0872

Vancouver

752

8833

0.0851

Dallas

715

8524

0.0839

Washington

796

9576

0.0831

Philadelphia

754

9117

0.0827

Edmonton

692

8398

0.0824

Tampa Bay

719

8785

0.0818

Buffalo

772

9462

0.0816

Chicago

801

9834

0.0815

Winnipeg

721

8852

0.0815

Toronto

757

9309

0.0813

Calgary

729

9000

0.0810

Boston

785

9777

0.0803

Nashville

729

9090

0.0802

St. Louis

705

8840

0.0798

Anaheim

670

8407

0.0797

Montreal

686

8716

0.0787

Colorado

710

9050

0.0785

Detroit

798

10237

0.0780

Ottawa

714

9211

0.0775

Minnesota

613

8012

0.0765

Carolina

707

9271

0.0763

Phoenix

703

9238

0.0761

NY Rangers

694

9181

0.0756

Columbus

661

8770

0.0754

Los Angeles

654

8782

0.0745

Florida

684

9213

0.0742

San Jose

720

9721

0.0741

New Jersey

659

8997

0.0732

NY Islanders

644

9003

0.0715

So, over the last 5 years combined, Pittsburgh, at 8.7%, has been able to shoot at a rate statistically significantly better than 8.0%. Florida, San Jose, New Jersey, and the Islanders have managed to shoot at a rate statistically significantly worse than 8.0%

Rank Order

I ranked the teams from 1 to 30 each year, and added up the ranks. If the Blues were the best team each year, they would have a score of 5. If they were the worst team each year, they would have a score of 150. An average team would have a score of 77 or 78. The standard deviation is 19.35 so a 95% confidence interval is 40 to 115.

Team

rank2007

rank2008

rank2009

rank2010

rank2011

ranktot

Pittsburgh

2

1

6

22

3

34

Vancouver

19

2

2

8

11

42

Dallas

7

5

10

1

21

44

Chicago

5

23

7

10

11

56

Edmonton

2

6

11

23

17

59

Philadelphia

18

8

26

2

5

59

Buffalo

2

14

17

19

13

65

Toronto

15

11

27

5

7

65

St. Louis

10

16

13

4

24

67

Winnipeg

13

4

3

27

20

67

Boston

27

3

30

6

2

68

Tampa Bay

17

17

19

15

1

69

Calgary

9

11

28

3

19

70

Nashville

12

19

24

9

6

70

Washington

20

19

1

21

10

71

Anaheim

23

10

8

17

16

74

Colorado

6

25

4

14

26

75

Montreal

8

13

25

28

9

83

Detroit

22

15

29

16

4

86

Ottawa

1

24

16

29

18

88

Los Angeles

14

26

12

7

30

89

Minnesota

11

22

9

18

29

89

NY Rangers

25

30

14

13

8

90

Carolina

16

27

15

10

23

91

Phoenix

29

18

21

12

14

94

Columbus

30

7

20

24

22

103

Florida

24

9

18

26

28

105

San Jose

21

29

5

25

26

106

New Jersey

26

21

23

30

14

114

NY Islanders

28

28

22

20

25

123

Pittsburgh manages to be better than average and the Islanders worse than average.




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