Fenwick for First Four Playoff Games -- and bonus content from JFTC: Scoring Chances!

Harry How

A look at the possession stat Fenwick for St. Louis Blues players and team for the first four playoff games. And I just added a scoring chances chart thanks to the good folks over at Jewels from the Crown.

Fenwick (from Hockey Prospectus)

Another possession metric, originally devised by Matt Fenwick of the Battle of Alberta blog. Fenwick follows the same concept as Corsi, but doesn't include blocked shots. Fenwick is considered to have better predictive value for future goal differential than Corsi. The removal of blocked shots is also valuable since blocked shots are a proven skill worthy of being separated.

Fenwick Events/Percentage (from Pension Plan Puppets)

For the sake of easy comparison, Fenwick Events can be used in a number form (like Corsi) and provided on a per 60 minute basis, or as has been more recently suggested, presented as a percentage. If you assign all Fenwick Events to the home and away team, each team will have a percentage of the total number of events in any given game. Similarly, if you add up all the Fenwick Events in favour of a given team over the course of their season, and divide them by the total number of events in the games they play in, you would determine a Fenwick Events Percentage on a seasonal basis. This is something you can easily compare; it's ONE number.

This week's Blues by the Numbers is made possible by the awesome work done by David Johnson over at stats.hockeyanalysis.com. Please consider visiting his site, and giving a few bucks to help support his effort to provide us advanced statistics during the playoffs. He has a lot there and I will hopefully be doing more with it and the playoffs progress for the Blues.

Both the team and player Fenwick numbers reinforce what we pretty much already know. The Blues just haven't been playing up to their potential in Games 3 and 4 of this series.

Yeah...this isn't the dashboard I promised last week. So what? This is more interesting.


@RobertJFTC over at Jewels from the Crown writes up fancy stats analysis for the Kings. He was gracious enough to include the St. Louis Blues in his scoring chance analysis today. So while I was watching Holtby screw up the Capitals' chances of winning game 4, I put together a quick scatterplot using Robert's data. Go take a look at his original post. Then come back to play with the data below!

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