Giving Up Goals In Bunches

Halak not giving up a bunch of goals - Ben Nelms

Turns out the Blues give up "Goals in Bunches" at a rate better than average and about what you would expect from an elite defensive team.

Skip182 made the point recently that "Blues goaltenders this year have a baaaad habit of giving up goals in bunches. In games this season, Blues goalies have given up 2 goals in < 5 minutes 11 times, 3 goals in < 6 minutes 3 times, and 3 goals in < 10 minutes 5 times "  Is that out of the ordinary?

First some fact checking.  I get

10/12/13 NYR  Halak gave up a ES goal at 36:56 and ES at 42:54  Blues win 5-3
10/15/13 SJS  Halak gave up PP at 9:37 and PP at 10:25  Blues lose 6-2
10/18/13 WPG  Elliott gave up ES at 53:13 and ES at 58:06  Blues lose 4-3
11/16/13 CAR  Elliott gave up SH at 35:37 and SH at 16:34  Blues win 4-2
11/17/13 WSH  Halak gave up ES at 7:17, ES at 12:34, and ES at 15:41  Blues lose 4-1
11/29/13 SJS  Elliott gave up ES at 0:35, PP at 3:01, ES at 9:41, and ES at 11:27  Blues lose 6-3
12/07/13 ANA  Halak gave up ES at 1:10, PP at 5:36, and ES at 7:29  Blues lose 5-2
12/12/13 TOR  Elliott gave up ES at 14:30 and ES at 16:52  Blues win 6-3
12/14/13 CBJ  Halak gave up ES at 8:49, ES at 11:39, and ES at 13:27  Blues win 4-3
12/17/13 SJS  Halak gave up ES at 9:38 and ES at 12:34  Blues lose 4-2
12/28/13 CHI  Halak gave up ES at 7:48, PP at 9:55, and ES at 17:04  Blues win 6-5
12/29/13 DAL  Elliott gave up PP at 28:13 and ES at 31:31  Blues win 3-2
01/07/14 EDM  Elliott gave up ES at 21:36 and ES at 25:10  Blues win 5-2
01/16/14 LAK  Halak gave up ES at 42:04 and SH at 44:21  Blues lose 4-1
01/21/14 NJD  Elliott gave up ES at 2:27, ES at 2:51, and ES at 10:27  Blues lose 7-1
02/01/14 NSH  Elliott gave up ES at 43:25 and ES at 47:33  Blues win 4-3
02/04/14 OTT  Halak gave up ES at 5:52, ES at 7:02, and ES at 8:27  Blues lose 5-4
02/06/14 BOS  Halak gave up ES at 49:16 and ES at 51:24  Blues win 3-2

So 18 games.  10 by Halak and 8 by Elliott.  Blues record in those games is 9-9.

Date

Opponent

2 in 5 min

3 in 6 min

3 in 10 min

10/12/13

NYR

Yes

No

No

10/15/13

SJS

Yes

No

No

10/18/13

WPG

Yes

No

No

11/16/13

CAR

Yes

No

No

11/17/13

WSH

Yes

No

Yes

11/29/13

SJS

Yes x 2

No

Yes x 2

12/07/13

ANA

Yes x 2

No

Yes

12/12/13

TOR

Yes

No

No

12/14/13

CBJ

Yes x 2

Yes

Yes

12/17/13

SJS

Yes

No

No

12/28/13

CHI

Yes

No

Yes

12/29/13

DAL

Yes

No

No

01/07/14

EDM

Yes

No

No

01/16/14

LAK

Yes

No

No

01/21/14

NJD

Yes

No

Yes

02/01/14

NSH

Yes

No

No

02/04/14

OTT

Yes x 2

Yes

Yes

02/06/14

BOS

Yes

No

No

Total

18 (22)

2

7 (8)

I only found 2 games where the Blues gave up 3 goals in less than 6 minutes. The third one is probably there somewhere and I'm just missing it. Taking those two games out, there were 5 games where the Blues gave up 3 goals in 10 minutes without giving up 3 in 6.  (In one way of looking at it, they gave up 3 in 10 twice in the 11/29/13 game).  Taking those out, there were 11 more games where they gave up 2 goals in 5 minutes.  I'm going to look at the larger number for the 2 in 5 minutes below.

I looked at all regulation and overtime goals in 2010-11 through 2012-13 (no Shootout goals).  The Blues were fifth overall in goals against over that time frame.

Team

Goals

L.A

479

NYR

485

VAN

486

BOS

494

STL

497

S.J

525

NSH

528

PIT

533

N.J

534

PHX

535

MTL

544

DET

547

WSH

547

CHI

548

ANA

567

MIN

570

PHI

580

OTT

581

DAL

585

BUF

590

CGY

604

FLA

608

CBJ

622

EDM

623

CAR

627

TOR

632

NYI

640

WPG

641

COL

655

T.B

659

Just to make sure the Blues goalies weren't skewing the results, I took out the Blues games and looked at the remaining 29 teams. There were 16569 goals given up in 6148 games (2.695 goals per game). I pulled out how many times teams gave up 0 goals in the 5 minutes after a goal, how many times they gave up 1 goal in the 5 minutes after a goal, etc. I repeated this for the 6 minutes after a goal and for the 10 minutes after a goal. Obviously, there is going to be "right-censoring". There is no way to give up another goal after an overtime goal. Goals late in games also don't necessarily have full risk. Presumably, though, the Blues goals against this season reflects a similar mix of when the goals were given up.

5 minutes after a goal

Goals

Instances

0

13639

1

2680

2

235

3

12

4

2

5

0

6 minutes after a goal

Goals

Instances

0

13089

1

3112

2

343

3

22

4

2

5

0

10 minutes after a goal

Goals

Instances

0

11296

1

4325

2

829

3

108

4

7

5

2

6

1

7

0

Through 59 games the Blues had given up 134 goals.  1 or more goals should get scored in the next 5 minutes roughly 2929/16569 or about once every 5.6 goals.  So that should have happened about 24 times this season.  2 or more goals should get scored in the next 6 minutes roughly 367/16569 or about once every 45.1 goals.  That should have happened about 3 times.  2 or more goals should get scored in the next 10 minutes roughly 947/16569 or about once every 17.5 goals.  So that should have happened about 7-8 times.

So the Blues goalies this season have given up goals in bunches less than the league average of the last three years.  The Blues are an elite defensive team.  How do they stack up against the 4 teams who have given up fewer goals?

5 minutes after a goal

Goals

Instances

0

1640

1

283

2

18

3

1

4

1

5

0

6

0

6 minutes after a goal

Goals

Instances

0

1579

1

330

2

32

3

1

4

1

5

0

6

0

10 minutes after a goal

Goals

Instances

0

1390

1

469

2

80

3

3

4

1

5

0

6

0

Against elite defensive teams, 1 or more goals should get scored in the next 5 minutes roughly 303/1943 or about once every 6.4 goals.  So that should have happened about 21 times this season.  2 or more goals should get scored in the next 6 minutes roughly 34/1943 or about once every 57.1 goals.  That should have happened about 2 times.  2 or more goals should get scored in the next 10 minutes roughly 84/1943 or about once every 23.1 goals.  So that should have happened about 6 times.  For the big bunches (3 goals in 6 or 10 minutes) the Blues are right on the average for elite teams.  For the 2 in 5 metric the Blues are a handful of instances less than the elite average.

What about the Blues the last two years?  (This includes 33 goals from 15 games of Jake Allen in 2012-13)

5 minutes after a goal

Goals

Instances

0

233

1

32

2

3

3

0

4

0

5

0

6 minutes after a goal

Goals

Instances

0

226

1

39

2

3

3

0

4

0

5

0

10 minutes after a goal

Goals

Instances

0

188

1

70

2

10

3

0

4

0

5

0

2 goals in 5 minutes after a goal happened 35 times in 2 seasons.  3 goals in 6 minutes happened 3 times total.  3 goals in 10 minutes happened 10 times total.  The expected total for an elite team are 42, 5, and 12 respectively.

If you look at goals scored in bunches, the Blues have a performance this season comparable to other elite defensive teams.  During 2011-12 and 2012-13, the Blues were better than even the other elite teams.

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