Berglund's Contract

I'm gettin' paid! - Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

The sky is falling! Or not.

A lot of doom and gloom over at Lets Go Blues about the Patrik Berglund contract.  I don't agree with most of the concerns.

Schwartz now knows what to ask for

Uh, maybe in 5 years when he's 26. Berglund's contract has zero impact on Schwartz. Schwartz is a RFA with no arbitration rights and no ability to get an offer sheet. As long as the Blues give him a qualifying offer (a 10% raise) he either signs or sits out. No other options.

Oshie got $2.35 at 24

Perron got $1.8m at 22

Berglund got $2.1m at 23

The only way Schwartz might get more than those guys got is if he signs a long term deal like Jeff Skinner or Justin Faulk got from the Hurricanes. You make more money in the short run in return for less money during your arbitration-eligible or even UFA years. These are generally dumb contracts for the team. They have a lot of risk with little reward. Army hasn't shown any tendency to offer these kind of deals and I would be a little surprised to see it happen.

This is a significant overpay for Berglund

Looking at CapGeek's comparables for Berglund.

Name

Age

Team

Length

Start

Expiry

Salary

Cap Hit

Cap Pct

Berglund, Patrik "

26

STL

3

2014

2017

$3,700,000

$3,700,000

5.20%

Brouwer, Troy "

28

WAS

3

2013

2016

$3,650,000

$3,666,667

5.70%

Dupuis, Pascal "

35

PIT

4

2013

2017

$4,000,000

$3,750,000

5.83%

Vermette, Antoine "

31

ARI

5

2010

2015

$3,750,000

$3,750,000

6.31%

Williams, Justin "

32

LAK

4

2011

2015

$3,050,000

$3,650,000

5.68%

Read, Matt "

28

PHI

4

2014

2018

$3,000,000

$3,625,000

5.10%

Ruutu, Tuomo "

31

NJD

4

2012

2016

$5,000,000

$3,800,000

5.41%

Perron, David "

26

EDM

4

2012

2016

$4,250,000

$3,812,500

5.43%

Kunitz, Chris "

34

PIT

3

2014

2017

$4,000,000

$3,850,000

5.41%

Turris, Kyle "

24

OTT

5

2013

2018

$3,500,000

$3,500,000

5.44%

Desharnais, David "

27

MTL

4

2013

2017

$3,500,000

$3,500,000

5.44%

Tanguay, Alex "

34

COL

5

2011

2016

$3,500,000

$3,500,000

5.44%

Cullen, Matt "

37

NSH

2

2013

2015

$4,000,000

$3,500,000

5.44%

Upshall, Scottie "

30

FLA

4

2011

2015

$3,500,000

$3,500,000

5.44%

Ryder, Michael "

34

NJD

2

2013

2015

$3,500,000

$3,500,000

5.44%

Franzen, Johan "

34

DET

11

2009

2020

$5,000,000

$3,954,545

6.96%

Simmonds, Wayne "

25

PHI

6

2013

2019

$3,200,000

$3,975,000

6.18%

Jones, David "

29

CGY

4

2012

2016

$4,000,000

$4,000,000

5.70%

Parenteau, P-A "

31

COL

4

2012

2016

$4,000,000

$4,000,000

5.70%

Hudler, Jiri "

30

CGY

4

2012

2016

$4,000,000

$4,000,000

5.70%

Stafford, Drew "

28

BUF

4

2011

2015

$4,000,000

$4,000,000

6.22%

Looking at the players who closest to his age, Berglund compares pretty well. Of the other 5, only Desharnais is a center. Centers are generally worth more than wings, everything else being equal.

Player

Points Last Year

Points Best Year

Berglund

32

52

Brouwer

43

43

Read

40

47

Perron

57

57

Stafford

34

52

Desharnais

36

44

It's too much money down the road

When there is inflation, money today is worth more than money down the road. If there is 10% annual inflation, $1.00 today equals $1.10 next year and $1.21 in 2 years. The cap going up is, in essence, inflation. Bob MacKenzie thinks that the salary cap will go up 10% a year over the next 2-3 years. I think this is a bit much, but the economy is picking up and we could easily see 5-7% revenue growth. So Berglund's salary as a percentage of the cap actually will go down. Using 7% annual growth we get:

Year

Berglund

Salary Cap

% of Cap

2013

$3.2m

$64m

5

2014

$3.7m

$70m

5.3

2015

$3.7m

$75m

4.9

2016

$3.7m

$80m

4.6

He signed for what is likely to be a lower percentage of the cap in 2015 and 2016 than he made in 2013.

Berglund is a two-way center who is good for about 30-40 points a season. Should he be capable of more than that? Absolutely. Is $3.7m for a UFA-eligible 35 point center a bad deal? Not in today's NHL.

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