Blocking Shots and Save Percentage

New Blue Carl Gunnarsson - Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sport

Blocking Shots doesn't seem to impact Save Percentage.

The question was raised this Spring as to whether better defensive teams have a negative effect on save percentage. The notion was that better teams block more low percentage shots. The shots that make it on goal are therefor more dangerous. I doubt that this is the case, but let's dig into it.

One approach would be to look at where shots get blocked. Unfortunately, the data for this is mostly non-existent. The little data that exists is poor quality and not likely to yield a valid answer. I took the approach of looking at how many shots get blocked and how that relates to various other measures of team defensive performance.

Some Global Numbers

Total Corsi Events: 273180

Total Blocked Shots: 70455

Team with most Corsi Against: Toronto 10627

Team with least Corsi Against: New Jersey 7189

Blues are 4th at 8819

Team with most CA-Blocked Islanders 2724

Team with least CA-Blocked New Jersey 1708

Blues are 21st with 2223

On average, the probability of blocking a Corsi Against is 0.2579068746

Montreal has the highest probability at 0.2910816908

Ottawa has the lowest probability at 0.2278819821

The Blues are 5th at 0.2760751681


Do teams differ in the percentage of shots they block?

I ran a logistic regression to see. Teams do differ significantly.

> LinearModel.1 = lm(bllogit ~ Team, weights=CA, data=Team3yrs)

> anova(LinearModel.1)

Analysis of Variance Table

Response: bllogit

Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)

Team 29 2008.21 69.249 4.3414 7.832e-07 ***

Residuals 60 957.05 15.951

Looking at the coefficients, we see that Ottawa, Los Angeles, Detroit, Phoenix, and New Jersey are worse than average, and the Rangers, the Islanders, San Jose, and Montreal are better than average.

Coefficients:

Estimate

StdError

tvalue

Pr(>|t|)

(Intercept)

-1.056876

0.007641

-138.311

2e-16

OttawaSenators

-0.182065

0.042561

-4.278

6.89e-05

LosAngelesKings

-0.148983

0.045969

-3.241

0.001946

DetroitRedWings

-0.122067

0.045479

-2.684

0.009388

FloridaPanthers

-0.111726

0.042757

-2.613

0.011325

PhoenixCoyotes

-0.102334

0.041939

-2.44

0.017656

NewJerseyDevils

-0.109428

0.04772

-2.293

0.025359

BuffaloSabres

-0.077568

0.041098

-1.887

0.063946

CarolinaHurricanes

-0.071811

0.040934

-1.754

0.084488

ColumbusBlueJackets

-0.058729

0.043181

-1.36

0.178901

BostonBruins

-0.046062

0.04343

-1.061

0.293122

ColoradoAvalanche

-0.041534

0.041449

-1.002

0.320349

VancouverCanucks

-0.033905

0.04359

-0.778

0.439725

TorontoMapleLeafs

-0.026719

0.039489

-0.677

0.501252

TampaBayLightning

-0.001522

0.042267

-0.036

0.971403

ChicagoBlackhawks

0.00367

0.044682

0.082

0.93482

EdmontonOilers

0.009968

0.041059

0.243

0.809019

DallasStars

0.018265

0.042059

0.434

0.665652

AnaheimDucks

0.020553

0.042208

0.487

0.628061

NashvillePredators

0.030684

0.04181

0.734

0.465873

PhiladelphiaFlyers

0.039444

0.042661

0.925

0.358877

WinnipegJets

0.040547

0.041712

0.972

0.334918

MinnesotaWild

0.042426

0.042374

1.001

0.320741

WashingtonCapitals

0.041859

0.041655

1.005

0.318983

PittsburghPenguins

0.0441

0.043044

1.025

0.309702

CalgaryFlames

0.072423

0.041333

1.752

0.084852

St.LouisBlues

0.081774

0.044989

1.818

0.074109

NewYorkRangers

0.110108

0.042527

2.589

0.012056

NewYorkIslanders

0.114277

0.041246

2.771

0.007438

SanJoseSharks

0.158662

0.041983

3.779

0.000364

MontrealCanadiens

0.164789

0.042059

3.918

0.000231

Blocks and Team Defense

There is a strong relationship between the total number of shots blocked and the total number of Corsi events against.  (CABperG is Corsi Against-Blocked, i.e., shots blocked, per game, and CAperG is Corsi Against per game.)

Blocks2_medium


There is a small positive relationship between the percentage of shots blocked and the number of Corsi events against per game. Teams that give up a lot of Corsi events tend to block a slightly higher percentage of those events than average teams. (CAperG is Corsi Against per Game and BLPCT is Blocked Shots/Corsi Against).

Caperg_medium

There is no relationship between the percentage of shots blocked and the number of shots against per game.  (SAperG is Shots Against per Game and BLPCT is Blocked Shots/Corsi Against).

Saperg_medium

There is no relationship between the percentage of shots blocked and the number of goals against per game.  (GAperG is Goals Against per Game and BLPCT is Blocked Shots/Corsi Against).

Gaperg_medium

There is no relationship between the percentage of shots blocked and team Even Strength Save Percentage.

Svpct_medium

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