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2010 Draft Preview, Part Two: Further Analysis

Compiled by Brian Weidler, "Game Time" Prospect Department


2010 Draft Logo

It's that time of the year again, ladies and gentlemen... the Stanley Cup Finals are over (enough said about that), and your Game Time Prospect Department's favorite event of the hockey year - the NHL Entry Draft - is now less than two weeks away.

This draft, to be held on June 25-26 in Los Angeles, is considered a fairly "deep" draft in terms of the number of quality prospects available. There are two players who are head and shoulders above their peers -- centers Taylor Hall (Windsor, OHL) and Tyler Seguin (Plymouth, OHL) -- followed by a group of three solid defensemen, and that followed by a group of about thirty players who could be selected anywhere between fifth and 35th overall.

The Blues will have six selections in the 2010 Draft, at 14th (Round 1), 44th (Round 2), 74th (Round 3), 104th (Round 4), 134th (Round 5) and 164th (Round 6) overall, and before we look ahead to this year's draft, and to the players that your GTPD and some of the experts have identified have identified as likely targets for the Blues, we'll take a look back at the last seven drafts to try and establish any trends or statistical anomalies.

In last week's report, we detailed the Blues' selections in the first round of the drafts in the Kekalainen Era (2003-2009). Some of the details that were uncovered are:

-- The Blues have drafted first overall (2006), 30th overall (2003), and at several points in between over the last seven drafts; their average first-round draft position has been 18th overall, four spots below where they will select this year.

-- The Blues have had 10 total first-round picks in the last seven drafts, at least one in every draft over that time frame, and a high of three first-round picks in 2007. Those picks were used to select Lars Eller (13th overall), Ian Cole (18th overall) and David Perron (26th overall).

-- The Blues have used those ten first-round picks on five defensemen, four forwards, and one goaltender, and have selected players from Canada (3), the United States (3), Sweden (2), the Czech Republic (1) and Denmark (1).

This week, we'll take the same in-depth look at the Blues' selections in Rounds Two through Seven since 2003.

More after the jump.

The table below details the Blues' selections in Rounds 1-7 of the NHL Entry Draft during the period 2003-2009. Illustrated are the total number of selections, selections by nation of origin, average heights and weights of players selected, and average draft position for each round.

Round Avg Draft Position 2010 Draft Position Total Selections Fwd Def Goal Avg Ht (in) Avg Ht (cm) Avg Wt (lb) Avg Wt (kg) BLR CAN CZE DMK FIN KAZ RUS SUI SWE USA
1 18th Overall 14th Overall 10 4 5 1 73.4 186.4 196.0 88.9 0 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 3
2 42nd Overall 44th Overall 9 6 2 1 74.0 188.0 192.4 87.3 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 3
3 80th Overall 74th Overall 10 6 2 2 73.3 186.2 192.6 87.4 1 2 0 0 1 1 2 0 1 2
4 103rd Overall 104th Overall 9 5 3 1 72.7 184.6 180.8 82.0 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 4
5 141st Overall 134th Overall 6 3 2 1 73.2 185.8 186.5 84.6 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 2
6 168th Overall 164th Overall 8 5 3 0 73.4 186.4 192.1 87.1 0 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
7 202nd Overall No Selection 7 5 1 1 73.1 185.8 188.1 85.3 0 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 2
59 34 18 7 73.3 186.2 190.1 86.3 1 20 4 1 1 1 5 1 8 17

Note that the table above shows 59 total picks in the period 2003-2009, while the chart below shows 62 total picks in that same time frame. In 2003 and 2004, the draft was nine rounds rather than the current seven; the Blues had an 8th round pick (Russian D Andrei Pervyshin) and a 9th round pick (Finnish F Juhamatti Aaltonen) in 2003, and a 9th round pick (Canadian F Jonathan Michel Boutin) in 2004. None of those players remain with the organization, although the Blues do technically still hold the rights to Pervyshin.

Draft Picks By Country

Some trends and tendencies developed from the information above, and at right, are as follows:

-- The Blues have selected at least one goaltender in every round of the draft except the sixth round in the period 2003-2009.

-- The third round of the draft is the round in which the Blues are statistically most likely to select a goaltender. The NHL rights to the two goaltenders chosen by the Blues in the third round (Konstantin Barulin, RUS, 2003 and Ben Bishop, USA, 2005) remain with the organization, although again, Barulin is unlikely to play in North America, and 2009-10 was the last year of Bishop's entry-level contract, and he is now an RFA.

-- On average, the tallest players gave been selected in Round 2 of the draft, led by 6' 6 Brett Ponich (D, CAN, 48th overall 2009). The heaviest players have been chosen in Round 1, led by 220-pound Shawn Belle (D, CAN, 30th overall 2003) and 219-pound Erik Johnson (D, USA, 1st overall 2006).

-- On average, the smallest and lightest players chosen have been in the fourth round, averaging just under 6' 1 and weighing just under 185 pounds.

-- The fourth round is also the number in which the greatest number of American-born players (4) have been chosen. The most Canadians (6) chosen have been in the sixth round. In no round have more than two players from any other country been selected.

As expected, the first round has produced the greatest number of NHL players to date, with four of the Blues' ten selections currently on the NHL roster. An additional four players (Belle [with MIN and MTL], Eller, Pietrangelo and Schwarz) have played at least one NHL game.

Conversely, the round that has produced the most "bust" players - defined simply as players no longer with the organization - is the second round. Four of the Blues' nine second-round picks (Scott Jackson, Tomas Kana, Aaron Palushaj and Carl Soderberg) are no longer with the organization, and only Kana has played so much as one NHL game, appearing in six games for Columbus at the end of the 2009-10 season.

Coming later this week, a look at players selected by the Blues in various mock drafts at and "Hockey's Future," including the three that your GTPD has been participating in. Next Sunday, our best guess at the players the Blues will begin selecting on Friday, June 25 in Los Angeles. Until then, remember... "if we do not prepare for ourselves the role of the hammer, there will be nothing left but that of the anvil." Auf wiedersehen.