Giving Up Goals In Bunches

Skip182 made the point recently that "Blues goaltenders this year have a baaaad habit of giving up goals in bunches. In games this season, Blues goalies have given up 2 goals in < 5 minutes 11 times, 3 goals in < 6 minutes 3 times, and 3 goals in < 10 minutes 5 times "  Is that out of the ordinary?

First some fact checking.  I get

10/12/13 NYR  Halak gave up a ES goal at 36:56 and ES at 42:54  Blues win 5-3
10/15/13 SJS  Halak gave up PP at 9:37 and PP at 10:25  Blues lose 6-2
10/18/13 WPG  Elliott gave up ES at 53:13 and ES at 58:06  Blues lose 4-3
11/16/13 CAR  Elliott gave up SH at 35:37 and SH at 16:34  Blues win 4-2
11/17/13 WSH  Halak gave up ES at 7:17, ES at 12:34, and ES at 15:41  Blues lose 4-1
11/29/13 SJS  Elliott gave up ES at 0:35, PP at 3:01, ES at 9:41, and ES at 11:27  Blues lose 6-3
12/07/13 ANA  Halak gave up ES at 1:10, PP at 5:36, and ES at 7:29  Blues lose 5-2
12/12/13 TOR  Elliott gave up ES at 14:30 and ES at 16:52  Blues win 6-3
12/14/13 CBJ  Halak gave up ES at 8:49, ES at 11:39, and ES at 13:27  Blues win 4-3
12/17/13 SJS  Halak gave up ES at 9:38 and ES at 12:34  Blues lose 4-2
12/28/13 CHI  Halak gave up ES at 7:48, PP at 9:55, and ES at 17:04  Blues win 6-5
12/29/13 DAL  Elliott gave up PP at 28:13 and ES at 31:31  Blues win 3-2
01/07/14 EDM  Elliott gave up ES at 21:36 and ES at 25:10  Blues win 5-2
01/16/14 LAK  Halak gave up ES at 42:04 and SH at 44:21  Blues lose 4-1
01/21/14 NJD  Elliott gave up ES at 2:27, ES at 2:51, and ES at 10:27  Blues lose 7-1
02/01/14 NSH  Elliott gave up ES at 43:25 and ES at 47:33  Blues win 4-3
02/04/14 OTT  Halak gave up ES at 5:52, ES at 7:02, and ES at 8:27  Blues lose 5-4
02/06/14 BOS  Halak gave up ES at 49:16 and ES at 51:24  Blues win 3-2

So 18 games.  10 by Halak and 8 by Elliott.  Blues record in those games is 9-9.

Date	Opponent	2 in 5 min	3 in 6 min	3 in 10 min
10/12/13	NYR	Yes	No	No
10/15/13	SJS	Yes	No	No
10/18/13	WPG	Yes	No	No
11/16/13	CAR	Yes	No	No
11/17/13	WSH	Yes	No	Yes
11/29/13	SJS	Yes x 2	No	Yes x 2
12/07/13	ANA	Yes x 2	No	Yes
12/12/13	TOR	Yes	No	No
12/14/13	CBJ	Yes x 2	Yes	Yes
12/17/13	SJS	Yes	No	No
12/28/13	CHI	Yes	No	Yes
12/29/13	DAL	Yes	No	No
01/07/14	EDM	Yes	No	No
01/16/14	LAK	Yes	No	No
01/21/14	NJD	Yes	No	Yes
02/01/14	NSH	Yes	No	No
02/04/14	OTT	Yes x 2	Yes	Yes
02/06/14	BOS	Yes	No	No
Total		18 (22)	2	7 (8)

I only found 2 games where the Blues gave up 3 goals in less than 6 minutes. The third one is probably there somewhere and I'm just missing it. Taking those two games out, there were 5 games where the Blues gave up 3 goals in 10 minutes without giving up 3 in 6.  (In one way of looking at it, they gave up 3 in 10 twice in the 11/29/13 game).  Taking those out, there were 11 more games where they gave up 2 goals in 5 minutes.  I'm going to look at the larger number for the 2 in 5 minutes below.

I looked at all regulation and overtime goals in 2010-11 through 2012-13 (no Shootout goals).  The Blues were fifth overall in goals against over that time frame.

Team	Goals
L.A	479
NYR	485
VAN	486
BOS	494
STL	497
S.J	525
NSH	528
PIT	533
N.J	534
PHX	535
MTL	544
DET	547
WSH	547
CHI	548
ANA	567
MIN	570
PHI	580
OTT	581
DAL	585
BUF	590
CGY	604
FLA	608
CBJ	622
EDM	623
CAR	627
TOR	632
NYI	640
WPG	641
COL	655
T.B	659

Just to make sure the Blues goalies weren't skewing the results, I took out the Blues games and looked at the remaining 29 teams. There were 16569 goals given up in 6148 games (2.695 goals per game). I pulled out how many times teams gave up 0 goals in the 5 minutes after a goal, how many times they gave up 1 goal in the 5 minutes after a goal, etc. I repeated this for the 6 minutes after a goal and for the 10 minutes after a goal. Obviously, there is going to be "right-censoring". There is no way to give up another goal after an overtime goal. Goals late in games also don't necessarily have full risk. Presumably, though, the Blues goals against this season reflects a similar mix of when the goals were given up.

5 minutes after a goal

Goals	Instances
0	13639
1	2680
2	235
3	12
4	2
5	0

6 minutes after a goal

Goals	Instances
0	13089
1	3112
2	343
3	22
4	2
5	0

10 minutes after a goal

Goals	Instances
0	11296
1	4325
2	829
3	108
4	7
5	2
6	1
7	0

Through 59 games the Blues had given up 134 goals.  1 or more goals should get scored in the next 5 minutes roughly 2929/16569 or about once every 5.6 goals.  So that should have happened about 24 times this season.  2 or more goals should get scored in the next 6 minutes roughly 367/16569 or about once every 45.1 goals.  That should have happened about 3 times.  2 or more goals should get scored in the next 10 minutes roughly 947/16569 or about once every 17.5 goals.  So that should have happened about 7-8 times.

So the Blues goalies this season have given up goals in bunches less than the league average of the last three years.  The Blues are an elite defensive team.  How do they stack up against the 4 teams who have given up fewer goals?

5 minutes after a goal

Goals	Instances
0	1640
1	283
2	18
3	1
4	1
5	0
6	0

6 minutes after a goal

Goals	Instances
0	1579
1	330
2	32
3	1
4	1
5	0
6	0

10 minutes after a goal

Goals	Instances
0	1390
1	469
2	80
3	3
4	1
5	0
6	0

Against elite defensive teams, 1 or more goals should get scored in the next 5 minutes roughly 303/1943 or about once every 6.4 goals.  So that should have happened about 21 times this season.  2 or more goals should get scored in the next 6 minutes roughly 34/1943 or about once every 57.1 goals.  That should have happened about 2 times.  2 or more goals should get scored in the next 10 minutes roughly 84/1943 or about once every 23.1 goals.  So that should have happened about 6 times.  For the big bunches (3 goals in 6 or 10 minutes) the Blues are right on the average for elite teams.  For the 2 in 5 metric the Blues are a handful of instances less than the elite average.

What about the Blues the last two years?  (This includes 33 goals from 15 games of Jake Allen in 2012-13)

5 minutes after a goal

Goals	Instances
0	233
1	32
2	3
3	0
4	0
5	0

6 minutes after a goal

Goals	Instances
0	226
1	39
2	3
3	0
4	0
5	0

10 minutes after a goal

Goals	Instances
0	188
1	70
2	10
3	0
4	0
5	0

2 goals in 5 minutes after a goal happened 35 times in 2 seasons.  3 goals in 6 minutes happened 3 times total.  3 goals in 10 minutes happened 10 times total.  The expected total for an elite team are 42, 5, and 12 respectively.

If you look at goals scored in bunches, the Blues have a performance this season comparable to other elite defensive teams.  During 2011-12 and 2012-13, the Blues were better than even the other elite teams.