FanPost

How Bad Were My Projections? Let's see!

At the beginning of the season, I wrote a fanpost about how I had statistically taken every player's last three years and come up with how many points they would score this year were they to play 82 games. In italics are the projections from September/October. In bold are their real-season stats with games played, then their real season stats per 82 games played, followed by any analysis I see as pertinent. I have a feeling this is going to be ugly.

Roy - 17 goals, 40 assists, 57 points
75 games played, 9 goals, 28 assists, 37 points
in 82 games - 10 goals, 31 assists, 41 points
I obviously did not take into account Derek Roy having played in a highly offensive system and coming over to the Blues in a highly defensive system - nor did I think he would get benched as often/much as he did.

Steen - 21 goals, 34 assists, 55 points
68 games played, 33 goals, 29 assists, 62 points
in 82 games - 40 goals, 35 assists, 75 points
I was way low this time. Steener impressed immensely. If he doesn't get hurt, he's got a shot at 40 and 75? Awesome in today's NHL. That would have placed him 4th in goals and 14th in points in the NHL.

Oshie - 19 goals, 36 assists, 55 points
79 games played, 21 goals, 39 assists, 60 points
in 82 games - 22 goals, 40 assists, 62 points
I was fairly close on this one! Woohoo! That's one!

Stewart - 29 goals, 25 assists, 54 points
58 games played, 15 goals, 11 assists, 26 points
in 82 games - 21 goals, 16 assists, 37 points
Wowsers. He was even less consistent than I thought!

Backes - 18 goals, 34 assists, 52 points
74 games played, 27 goals, 30 assists, 57 points
In 82 games - 30 goals, 33 assists, 63 points
Backes was much better this year and needs to take strides next year to be a 30/30/60 with a +30 next year.

Morrow - 22 goals, 24 assists, 46 points
71 games played, 13 goals, 12 assists, 25 points
in 82 games - 15 goals, 14 assists, 29 points
I was way high on Morrow - my statistical data did not factor in a lack of playing time compared to previous seasons in combination with him aging. I knew this would be too high.

Pietrangelo - 10 goals, 35 assists, 45 points
81 games, 8 goals, 43 assists, 51 points
in 82 games, 8 goals, 44 assists, 52 points
Petro beat out my assists by quite a bit. I love it.

Berglund - 25 goals, 18 assists, 43 points
78 games, 14 goals, 18 assists, 32 points
in 82 games, 15 goals, 19 assists, 34 points
Bergie just didn't crash the net as much as I thought to pick up some junk rebound goals - and the Blues needed him to, especially in the playoffs.

Shattenkirk - 9 goals, 33 assists, 42 points
81 games, 10 goals, 35 assists, 45 points
in 82 games, 10 goals, 35 assists, 45 points
Shatty did basically exactly as I expected.

Tarasenko - 16 goals, 20 assists, 36 points
64 games, 21 goals, 22 assists, 43 points
in 82 games, 27 goals, 28 assists, 55 points
The Ruskie made the leap before I thought he would. He needs to have a healthy, 75+ game season next year and I could see him joining Steener in the 70+ point range.

Bouwmeester - 8 goals, 24 assists, 32 points
82 games, 4 goals, 33 assists, 37 points
in 82 games - well, he played that many.
Bouwmeester met my expectations, was a little above. Good year.

Sobotka - 10 goals, 20 assists, 30 points
61 games, 9 goals, 24 assists, 33 points
in 82 games - 12 goals, 32 assists, 44 points
44 points is a darn good 3rd liner - on the Blues the last few years, it's a 2nd liner. That has to change. He needs to be a 3rd liner getting those points.

Schwarz - 16 goals, 13 assists, 29 points
80 games, 25 goals, 31 assists, 56 points
in 82 games - 26 goals, 32 assists, 58 points
Again with the leap - I see him doing what I see Tarasenko doing next year, joining the 70+ point club.

Paajarvi - 13 goals, 14 assists, 27 points
55 games, 6 goals, 6 assists, 12 points
in 82 games - 9 goals, 9 assists, 18 points
One of the disappointments of the year for me. I had VERY modest goals for him and he did not come close to reaching them.

Leopold - 8 goals, 18 assists, 26 points
27 games, 1 goal, 5 assists, 6 points
in 82 games, 3 goals, 15 assists, 18 points
Leopold also did not meet very modest goals - but wasn't healthy.

Cracknell - 12 goals, 11 assists, 23 points
19 games, 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points
in 82 games, 0 goals, 9 assists, 9 points
Cracknell wasn't given much of a chance and didn't produce when he was given the chance.

Jackman - 3 goals, 15 assists, 18 points
79 games, 3 goals, 12 assists, 15 points
in 82 games, 3 goals, 12 assists, 15 points
Jax basically did what I thought.

Lapierre - 7 goals, 9 assists, 16 points
71 games, 9 goals, 6 assists, 15 points
in 82 games, 9 goals, 6 assists, 15 points
Lapierre did what I thought - including a 5 game suspension.

Polak - 2 goals, 10 assists, 12 points
72 games, 4 goals, 9 assists, 13 points
in 82 games, 5 goals, 10 assists, 15 points
Polak is who we know he is.

Cole - 2 goals, 9 assists, 11 points
46 games, 3 goals, 8 assists, 11 points
in 82 games, 5 goals, 14 assists, 19 points
Clearly I need higher offensive expectations for Cole as he met them in only 46 games played.

Reaves - 6 goals, 3 assists, 9 points

63 games, 2 goals, 6 assists, 8 points
in 82 games, 3 goals, 8 assists, 11 points
Reaves did what I thought he would but did it in the form of assists rather than goals. I thought it would be the opposite.

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