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A lot of doom and gloom over at Lets Go Blues about the Patrik Berglund contract. I don't agree with most of the concerns.
Schwartz now knows what to ask for
Uh, maybe in 5 years when he's 26. Berglund's contract has zero impact on Schwartz. Schwartz is a RFA with no arbitration rights and no ability to get an offer sheet. As long as the Blues give him a qualifying offer (a 10% raise) he either signs or sits out. No other options.
Oshie got $2.35 at 24
Perron got $1.8m at 22
Berglund got $2.1m at 23
The only way Schwartz might get more than those guys got is if he signs a long term deal like Jeff Skinner or Justin Faulk got from the Hurricanes. You make more money in the short run in return for less money during your arbitration-eligible or even UFA years. These are generally dumb contracts for the team. They have a lot of risk with little reward. Army hasn't shown any tendency to offer these kind of deals and I would be a little surprised to see it happen.
This is a significant overpay for Berglund
Looking at CapGeek's comparables for Berglund.
|
Name |
Age |
Team |
Length |
Start |
Expiry |
Salary |
Cap Hit |
Cap Pct |
|
Berglund, Patrik " |
26 |
STL |
3 |
2014 |
2017 |
$3,700,000 |
$3,700,000 |
5.20% |
|
Brouwer, Troy " |
28 |
WAS |
3 |
2013 |
2016 |
$3,650,000 |
$3,666,667 |
5.70% |
|
Dupuis, Pascal " |
35 |
PIT |
4 |
2013 |
2017 |
$4,000,000 |
$3,750,000 |
5.83% |
|
Vermette, Antoine " |
31 |
ARI |
5 |
2010 |
2015 |
$3,750,000 |
$3,750,000 |
6.31% |
|
Williams, Justin " |
32 |
LAK |
4 |
2011 |
2015 |
$3,050,000 |
$3,650,000 |
5.68% |
|
Read, Matt " |
28 |
PHI |
4 |
2014 |
2018 |
$3,000,000 |
$3,625,000 |
5.10% |
|
Ruutu, Tuomo " |
31 |
NJD |
4 |
2012 |
2016 |
$5,000,000 |
$3,800,000 |
5.41% |
|
Perron, David " |
26 |
EDM |
4 |
2012 |
2016 |
$4,250,000 |
$3,812,500 |
5.43% |
|
Kunitz, Chris " |
34 |
PIT |
3 |
2014 |
2017 |
$4,000,000 |
$3,850,000 |
5.41% |
|
Turris, Kyle " |
24 |
OTT |
5 |
2013 |
2018 |
$3,500,000 |
$3,500,000 |
5.44% |
|
Desharnais, David " |
27 |
MTL |
4 |
2013 |
2017 |
$3,500,000 |
$3,500,000 |
5.44% |
|
Tanguay, Alex " |
34 |
COL |
5 |
2011 |
2016 |
$3,500,000 |
$3,500,000 |
5.44% |
|
Cullen, Matt " |
37 |
NSH |
2 |
2013 |
2015 |
$4,000,000 |
$3,500,000 |
5.44% |
|
Upshall, Scottie " |
30 |
FLA |
4 |
2011 |
2015 |
$3,500,000 |
$3,500,000 |
5.44% |
|
Ryder, Michael " |
34 |
NJD |
2 |
2013 |
2015 |
$3,500,000 |
$3,500,000 |
5.44% |
|
Franzen, Johan " |
34 |
DET |
11 |
2009 |
2020 |
$5,000,000 |
$3,954,545 |
6.96% |
|
Simmonds, Wayne " |
25 |
PHI |
6 |
2013 |
2019 |
$3,200,000 |
$3,975,000 |
6.18% |
|
Jones, David " |
29 |
CGY |
4 |
2012 |
2016 |
$4,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
5.70% |
|
Parenteau, P-A " |
31 |
COL |
4 |
2012 |
2016 |
$4,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
5.70% |
|
Hudler, Jiri " |
30 |
CGY |
4 |
2012 |
2016 |
$4,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
5.70% |
|
Stafford, Drew " |
28 |
BUF |
4 |
2011 |
2015 |
$4,000,000 |
$4,000,000 |
6.22% |
Looking at the players who closest to his age, Berglund compares pretty well. Of the other 5, only Desharnais is a center. Centers are generally worth more than wings, everything else being equal.
|
Player |
Points Last Year |
Points Best Year |
|
Berglund |
32 |
52 |
|
Brouwer |
43 |
43 |
|
Read |
40 |
47 |
|
Perron |
57 |
57 |
|
Stafford |
34 |
52 |
|
Desharnais |
36 |
44 |
It's too much money down the road
When there is inflation, money today is worth more than money down the road. If there is 10% annual inflation, $1.00 today equals $1.10 next year and $1.21 in 2 years. The cap going up is, in essence, inflation. Bob MacKenzie thinks that the salary cap will go up 10% a year over the next 2-3 years. I think this is a bit much, but the economy is picking up and we could easily see 5-7% revenue growth. So Berglund's salary as a percentage of the cap actually will go down. Using 7% annual growth we get:
|
Year |
Berglund |
Salary Cap |
% of Cap |
|
2013 |
$3.2m |
$64m |
5 |
|
2014 |
$3.7m |
$70m |
5.3 |
|
2015 |
$3.7m |
$75m |
4.9 |
|
2016 |
$3.7m |
$80m |
4.6 |
He signed for what is likely to be a lower percentage of the cap in 2015 and 2016 than he made in 2013.
Berglund is a two-way center who is good for about 30-40 points a season. Should he be capable of more than that? Absolutely. Is $3.7m for a UFA-eligible 35 point center a bad deal? Not in today's NHL.