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J-Mill linked to this NHL.com article that asked “Can the Blues compete for the Cup with their revamped goaltending?” Uh, yeah!
Am I worried about Brian Elliott?
Hell no. Here's Elliott's numbers over his Blues career:
GP |
GS |
ESA |
EGA |
ESV |
ESVPCT |
PKSA |
PKGA |
PKSV |
PKSVPCT |
PPSA |
PPGA |
PPSV |
PPSVPCT |
TOTSVPCT |
|
38 |
36 |
806 |
44 |
762 |
0.945 |
148 |
13 |
135 |
0.912 |
18 |
1 |
17 |
0.944 |
0.940 |
|
24 |
20 |
448 |
37 |
411 |
0.917 |
66 |
11 |
55 |
0.833 |
12 |
1 |
11 |
0.917 |
0.907 |
|
31 |
25 |
566 |
43 |
523 |
0.924 |
101 |
8 |
93 |
0.921 |
14 |
2 |
12 |
0.857 |
0.922 |
|
93 |
81 |
1820 |
|
1696 |
0.932 |
315 |
|
283 |
0.898 |
44 |
|
40 |
0.909 |
0.93 |
Here's the list of NHL goalies with as many (or more) shots faced and a higher Even Strength Save Percentage over that time:
Tuukka Rask
Pretty short list.
Am I worried about Jake Allen?
A little. Allen doesn't have much NHL data and what little has has is underwhelming.
GP |
GS |
ESA |
EGA |
ESV |
ESVPCT |
15 |
13 |
291 |
26 |
265 |
0.910 |
I know Army thinks Allen is the real deal. Army also traded Halak and a bunch of assets to get Miller, so I'm not sure Army's evaluation of goaltenders is to be trusted. Comparing Allen's AHL record to a couple of other NHL starters who spent a long time in the minors, Allen compares ok (these are overall numbers, I don't have ES data for the AHL):
Name |
GP |
W |
L |
T/O |
GA |
SA |
SV |
SV% |
Jake Allen |
120 |
51 |
58 |
7 |
322 |
3696 |
3374 |
0.913 |
Corey Crawford |
255 |
135 |
98 |
13 |
669 |
7278 |
6609 |
0.908 |
Jimmy Howard |
186 |
90 |
73 |
11 |
475 |
1327 |
1215 |
0.916 |
Would I sign an insurance policy?
I would. Ilya Bryzgalov and Tim Thomas are still out there. Bryz is a little flaky. Ok, Bryz is more than a little flaky. He's “Charles Manson eating Froot Loops on your front porch” crazy. But he is still 0.923 ES for his career. Thomas is 0.928 ES for his career. He was 0.913 ES in 2013. Maybe he is better suited to duty as a golf course marshal than an NHL starter at this point, but I have a soft spot in my heart for the irascible elderly. Sign one of them and park them in Chicago in case the wheels somehow fall off.
How good do the goalies have to be?
Average will be fine. The Blues had a shot differential of +240. By adding Stasny and Lehtera, they should be up around +300 (or more). With that kind of margin, lousy goaltending snags a playoff berth. Average goaltending will have them in the hunt for the President's Trophy.