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If you take more shots than your opponent you generally win the game.
Simulations
Assume one team takes 15 shots. The other team takes 16, 17, 18, etc. up to a shot differential of +15. Both goalies have a save percentage of 0.911. Whether any shot gets saved is determined by a random number generator. I ran 10,000 simulations at each level. I counted only non-tied game results.
For 15 shots you get
|
Shot Differential |
Win Percentage |
|
1 |
0.5233405289 |
|
2 |
0.556311716 |
|
3 |
0.5835902936 |
|
4 |
0.614465739 |
|
5 |
0.6321065822 |
|
6 |
0.6524776815 |
|
7 |
0.6632440863 |
|
8 |
0.6952975659 |
|
9 |
0.7200203252 |
|
10 |
0.7320137038 |
|
11 |
0.7567197611 |
|
12 |
0.7690888971 |
|
13 |
0.7737423313 |
|
14 |
0.7883309073 |
|
15 |
0.7974714028 |
For 20 shots
|
Shot Differential |
Win Percentage |
|
1 |
0.5213454075 |
|
2 |
0.5445607763 |
|
3 |
0.5663187373 |
|
4 |
0.5785092698 |
|
5 |
0.6063359838 |
|
6 |
0.6279510163 |
|
7 |
0.6521467798 |
|
8 |
0.6732477789 |
|
9 |
0.6773435568 |
|
10 |
0.699275807 |
|
11 |
0.7169376365 |
|
12 |
0.7279100689 |
|
13 |
0.7434630678 |
|
14 |
0.7597333016 |
|
15 |
0.7780038296 |
25 shots
|
Shot Differential |
Win Percentage |
|
1 |
0.5340353516 |
|
2 |
0.5493150685 |
|
3 |
0.5593367158 |
|
4 |
0.5763025003 |
|
5 |
0.5904904157 |
|
6 |
0.6224514861 |
|
7 |
0.637056759 |
|
8 |
0.6538789429 |
|
9 |
0.6647272727 |
|
10 |
0.6788530466 |
|
11 |
0.7068634509 |
|
12 |
0.7112177564 |
|
13 |
0.7245323484 |
|
14 |
0.7345059615 |
|
15 |
0.7529866479 |
And finally 30 shots
|
Shot Differential |
Win Percentage |
|
1 |
0.5197657394 |
|
2 |
0.5469908815 |
|
3 |
0.5598838616 |
|
4 |
0.5797224927 |
|
5 |
0.5955988456 |
|
6 |
0.598688206 |
|
7 |
0.6244863428 |
|
8 |
0.6450495641 |
|
9 |
0.6618781907 |
|
10 |
0.6647612242 |
|
11 |
0.681412772 |
|
12 |
0.7050206734 |
|
13 |
0.7073142051 |
|
14 |
0.733044395 |
|
15 |
0.7312179188 |
Graphically, it looks like
Where Group A is 15 shots against, B is 20, C is 25, and D is 30.
NHL data
I took the data from 2007-08 to present, and looked at all games that were won in regulation or overtime (no shootout). While the team with more shots generally wins, the effect is not nearly as strong as the simulations. Overall, the team with more shots on goal won 54.9% of the games.
|
Shot Differential |
Win Percentage |
|
1 |
0.502722323 |
|
2 |
0.7531584062 |
|
3 |
0.4664107486 |
|
4 |
0.5191489362 |
|
5 |
0.479253112 |
|
6 |
0.5022421525 |
|
7 |
0.5210643016 |
|
8 |
0.4700460829 |
|
9 |
0.4881266491 |
|
10 |
0.5736677116 |
|
11 |
0.5282392027 |
|
12 |
0.496350365 |
|
13 |
0.4931506849 |
|
14 |
0.5431472081 |
|
16-19 |
0.5435244161 |
|
20-29 |
0.5835294118 |
|
30-51 |
0.8101265823 |
Two thing explain the difference. Bad games by goalies and score effect. The model has the goalie at a save percentage of 0.911 every shot, every game. That isn't true in real games. Score effects happen when the team with the lead "takes their foot off the pedal". They sit back and tend to allow more shots (although these are typically of lower quality).
First Period Shot Differential
I can eliminate some of the score effect by looking only at the first period. If we compare who has more shots in the first period with who has the lead at the end of the first period, it looks a lot more like the simulation data. Overall, the team with more shots on goal in the first period led after the first period in 63.3% of the untied games.
|
Shot Differential |
Win Percentage |
|
1 |
0.5265957447 |
|
2 |
0.5525568182 |
|
3 |
0.5877862595 |
|
4 |
0.6140651801 |
|
5 |
0.6733067729 |
|
6 |
0.6774193548 |
|
7 |
0.7092651757 |
|
8 |
0.689516129 |
|
9 |
0.7725118483 |
|
10 |
0.75 |
|
11 |
0.7924528302 |
|
12 |
0.8356164384 |
|
13 |
0.7551020408 |
|
14 |
0.756097561 |
|
15 |
1 |
|
16-24 |
0.8076923077 |
