Predicting the point total for the Blues

Stephen Burtch had an interesting article on Sportsnet the other day. Burtch says

One of the most reliable publicly available predictors of future results is Expected Goals For Percentage (xGF%). This is a measure of the probable goal outcomes based upon shot location, type, and shooter devised by Dawson Spriggings using data from War-On-Ice.com.

Burtch predicts the Blues finish fifth in the central with 97 points. (This was calculated after 31 games).

I think the Blues will finish a lot better than that. Why? Steve Ott.

Ott has been abjectly awful throughout his Blues career and this season is no exception. Look at Ott's impact on the Blues team GF% so far this year.

Let's calculate up the impact of Ott's injury. Even with Ott, the Blues have 48 points after 37 games. Calculating the expected number of points over the rest of the season for each possible GF% is pretty straightforward.

As long as the Blues replace Ott with someone with vague hockey competency they should be in the hunt for the division title. The Blues seem to be using Dmitrij Jaskin as the 4C. This season he hasn't been great (though still much better than Ott) but for his career he has been more or less average for a Blues player.

Ott hasn't been the only player pulling the Blues GF% down. So have his usual linemates and, interestingly, Scott Gomez.

The two guys still out of the lineup are better than Blues average over their careers.

So the Blues look like they should finish the season with somewhere around 105 points. Losing Ott helps a lot. Getting Schwartz and Berglund back should help as long as the Blues then limit the minutes of Reaves, Gomez, and Brodziak.