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Predicting the point total for the Blues

Using Expected Goals For Percent to predict the season finish for the Blues.

Jake Allen
Jake Allen
Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Stephen Burtch had an interesting article on Sportsnet the other day. Burtch says

One of the most reliable publicly available predictors of future results is Expected Goals For Percentage (xGF%). This is a measure of the probable goal outcomes based upon shot location, type, and shooter devised by Dawson Spriggings using data from War-On-Ice.com.

Burtch predicts the Blues finish fifth in the central with 97 points. (This was calculated after 31 games).

CENTRAL

GP

reg xGF%

reg GF%

W

L

OTL

PTS

ESTIMATED FINAL PTS

1

DALLAS*

52

52.50%

54.60%

29

17

6

64

110

2

NASHVILLE*

52

56.50%

52.70%

29

16

7

65

100

3

MINNESOTA*

54

50.70%

51.60%

28

19

7

63

99

4

CHICAGO*

51

50.00%

51.70%

26

17

7

59

97

5

ST. LOUIS*

51

51.10%

51.00%

26

18

7

59

97

6

WINNIPEG

52

47.70%

47.80%

24

25

3

51

81

7

COLORADO

51

47.70%

48.50%

24

26

2

50

79

I think the Blues will finish a lot better than that. Why? Steve Ott.

Ott has been abjectly awful throughout his Blues career and this season is no exception. Look at Ott's impact on the Blues team GF% so far this year.

Situation

Ott On Ice GF%

Ott Off Ice GF%

Total GF%

5v5

38.5

56.1

51.7

Total

26.3

55.95

52

Let's calculate up the impact of Ott's injury. Even with Ott, the Blues have 48 points after 37 games. Calculating the expected number of points over the rest of the season for each possible GF% is pretty straightforward.

GF%

Goals For

Goals Against

Goal Diff

Expected Points

Expected Points Tot

0.5

202

202

0

50

98

0.51

206

197

9

53

101

0.52

210

193

17

56

104

0.53

214

189

25

58

106

0.54

218

185

33

61

109

0.55

222

181

41

64

112

0.56

226

177

49

66

114

As long as the Blues replace Ott with someone with vague hockey competency they should be in the hunt for the division title. The Blues seem to be using Dmitrij Jaskin as the 4C. This season he hasn't been great (though still much better than Ott) but for his career he has been more or less average for a Blues player.

Time

GF% On

GF% Off

GF% Rel

20152016

45.5

55.6

-10.1

Career

52.4

52.8

-0.4

Ott hasn't been the only player pulling the Blues GF% down. So have his usual linemates and, interestingly, Scott Gomez.

Name

GF% On

GF% Off

GF% Rel

Ryan.Reaves

25

54.79

-29.79

Scott.Gomez

33.33

56.9

-23.56

Kyle.Brodziak

31.25

54.44

-23.19

Steve.Ott

38.46

56.14

-17.68

The two guys still out of the lineup are better than Blues average over their careers.

Name

GF% On

GF% Off

GF% Rel

Jaden.Schwartz

56.4

53.6

2.8

Patrik.Berglund

53.5

51.2

2.3

So the Blues look like they should finish the season with somewhere around 105 points. Losing Ott helps a lot. Getting Schwartz and Berglund back should help as long as the Blues then limit the minutes of Reaves, Gomez, and Brodziak.