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It's not too early for Blues fans to get worked up about this. Salary data is from CapGeek.com. The Group 2 Free Agent Compensation Chart is from NHL.com. I started on this before Bobrovsky signed with the Blue Jackets, which was January 9, so the stats for Tarasenko are a little out of date.
Before I get too far into this, I want to note that this is almost certainly the last article I will write using data from CapGeek. It's been a great resource and it will be sorely missed.
Cap Projection
In early December, at the NHL Board of Governors meetings, Gary Bettman estimated the 2015-16 cap to be at $73 million. Given the weak Canadian dollar, newer projections have the cap staying at $69 million.
Where the Blues stand The Blues have 15 players signed and $56.3m committed. Among the forwards, Tarasenko, Goc, Lindstrom, and Porter are unsigned. The latter three make $2.6m this season. Better replacements can be found at that price (although I would keep Goc at his current $1.2m or less). Holding off on Tarasenko, that leaves 18 players signed and about $59m committed. On defense, Jackman, Cole, Butler are unsigned. Cole is a RFA. Cole will be back at a small raise. A Butler level defenseman will be signed for Butler level money. For now, let's assume Jackman comes back at the same price. 22 players, $64m. Jake Allen is a RFA. A quality UFA backup can be signed for $1m or less. I certainly would not pay Allen more than that. 22 players, $65m. So, without trading anyone off the current roster, if the cap stays at $69m, the Blues have about $4m in cap space for Tarasenko. Tarasenko Tarasenko just turned 23. He signed his ELC at age 20 and will have 3 years professional experience as defined by the CBA, so he will be a Group 2 RFA. He will be eligible for offer sheets from other NHL clubs. At the point I started this article, he had played 139 NHL games with 51 goals and 50 assists. That's 0.367 goals per game and 0.727 points per game. Production Value Hockey Reference uses "goals created" to measure skaters. Tarasenko in his 2+ seasons has 7, 17, and 22 so far this year. Crosby led the league last year at 37. I've talked about Tom Awad's GVT in the past. Tarasenko's first two seasons were +2.2 and +13.2 GVT. Back of the envelope calculation has this year at about +18 GVT so far. THoR has Tarasenko at 1.3 Wins Above Replacement in 2012-13 and 2.38 WAR last season. At 6 goals per win, that's 7.8 and 14.3 GVR. 1.3 wins (or 7.8 goals) is an overestimate of his rookie season. For some reason, the THoR tables for 2012-13 include the first two-and-a-half months of the 2013-14 season. Name Age Team Length Position Start Expiry Salary Cap Hit O'Reilly, Ryan 23 COL 2 Center 2014 2016 $5,800,000 $6,000,000 Hall, Taylor 23 EDM 7 Wing 2013 2020 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 Duchene, Matt 23 COL 5 Center 2014 2019 $5,500,000 $6,000,000 Eberle, Jordan 24 EDM 6 Wing 2013 2019 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 N.-Hopkins, R. 21 EDM 7 Center 2014 2021 $6,000,000 $6,000,000 Seguin, Tyler 22 DAL 6 Wing 2013 2019 $5,500,000 $5,750,000 Skinner, Jeff 22 CAR 6 Wing 2013 2019 $6,000,000 $5,725,000 Johansen, Ryan 22 CBJ 3 Center 2014 2017 $3,000,000 $4,000,000 Name Games Goals Assists Points GPG PPG O'Reilly, Ryan 382 80 132 212 0.209 0.555 Hall, Taylor 278 102 146 248 0.367 0.892 Duchene, Matt 374 115 169 284 0.307 0.759 Eberle, Jordan 312 103 139 242 0.330 0.776 N.-Hopkins, R. 218 52 104 156 0.239 0.716 Seguin, Tyler 319 118 131 249 0.370 0.781 Skinner, Jeff 292 105 96 201 0.360 0.688 Johansen, Ryan 224 57 71 128 0.254 0.571 A couple of things are apparent. Tarasenko's numbers fit into these tables pretty well except nearly everyone of these players has played 2-3 times the number of games. Fewer games means more uncertainty. That usually means a salary discount. The other is the term of these deals. Only O'Reilly and Johansen have purely RFA contracts. The others extend into UFA years. These long term RFA contracts that overpay in the RFA years in return for an expected discount in the UFA years are, in my opinion, a terrible bet for the team. Army, to his credit, has not shown any inclination to offer these type of deals. Blues Comparables Name Age Year Cap Hit Total Cap Percent Cap Backes 24 2008 2.5 56.7 4.41 Perron 22 2010 2.15 59.4 3.62 Oshie 24 2011 2.35 64.3 3.65 Berglund 23 2011 2.25 64.3 3.50 Schwartz 22 2014 2.35 69 3.41 Name Games Goals Assists Points GPG PPG Backes 121 23 31 54 0.190 0.446 Perron 225 48 76 124 0.213 0.551 Oshie 182 44 77 121 0.242 0.665 Berglund 228 56 69 125 0.246 0.548 Schwartz 132 34 38 72 0.258 0.545 Compared to the other Blues, Tarasenko has produced goals and points at substantially higher rates. Offer Sheets Tarasenko would be eligible for offer sheets. First, the compensation table for Group 2 Free Agents: GROUP 2 COMPENSATION CHART OFFER SHEET COMPENSATION $1,110,249 or below None Over $1,110,249 to $1,682,194 Third Round Over $1,682,194 to $3,364,391 Second Round Over $3,364,391 to $5,046,585 First Round and Third Round Over $5,046,585 to $6,728,781 First Round, Second Round, and Third Round Over $6,728,781 to $8,410,976 Two First Rounds, Second Round, and Third Round Over $8,410,976 Four First Rounds Remember that for purposes of compensation, the annual cap hit is defined as the total value of the contract divided by the number of years on the contract or five, whichever is less. Meaning a 7 year, $42m contract is $42m/5 = $8.4m for the purpose of calculating compensation. So who will have cap space? At the time I pulled this data, teams had the following committed in 2015-16 (this is before Columbus signed Bobrovsky): Team Salary Payroll Cap Payroll Bonuses Cap Space Roster $/Opening Philadelphia Flyers " 66183690 67179762 212500 1820238 18 364048 Tampa Bay Lightning " 68829405 65122143 3506667 3877857 20 1292619 Chicago Blackhawks " 77458333 64988462 0 4011538 14 445726 Minnesota Wild " 63022500 61041340 177500 7958660 17 1326443 Los Angeles Kings " 66800000 61014394 0 7985606 15 998201 Colorado Avalanche " 59510000 59535595 2850000 9464405 23 0 Montreal Canadiens " 56375000 58045833 541667 10954167 16 1564881 Detroit Red Wings " 63654167 57302879 224167 11697121 19 2924280 Pittsburgh Penguins " 59722500 56479167 1250000 12520833 16 1788690 St. Louis Blues " 57388452 56372500 121667 12627500 15 1578438 Boston Bruins " 55367500 55627976 165833 13372024 13 1337202 Vancouver Canucks " 56865433 55094167 850000 13905833 14 1545093 Carolina Hurricanes " 53707500 53335833 1482500 15664167 14 1740463 Winnipeg Jets " 56340000 53045357 1730000 15954643 17 2659107 Toronto Maple Leafs " 60051548 52702500 850000 16297500 13 1629750 Ottawa Senators " 54257500 52606667 475000 16393333 17 2732222 Columbus Blue Jackets " 53307500 51821310 3190833 17178690 18 3435738 San Jose Sharks " 54715000 51527500 590833 17472500 15 2184063 Edmonton Oilers " 52507500 51456667 2825000 17543333 15 2192917 Washington Capitals " 49832500 49735128 400000 19264872 14 2140541 Dallas Stars " 51780833 49585000 1200000 19415000 16 2773571 Florida Panthers " 52008108 48946208 5732500 20053792 17 3342299 Anaheim Ducks " 48440000 47892500 850000 21107500 17 3517917 New Jersey Devils " 49006667 46908333 342500 22091667 14 2454630 Calgary Flames " 47475833 46854167 1932500 22145833 16 3163690 New York Rangers " 53855556 46675000 2850000 22325000 12 2029545 New York Islanders " 52607500 44549643 850000 24450357 16 3492908 Nashville Predators " 45845000 38405476 2866667 30594524 12 2781320 Arizona Coyotes " 41085278 38344444 284167 30655556 14 3406173 Buffalo Sabres " 39061865 35892500 2175000 33107500 13 3310750 The falling Canadian dollar and the (likely) static salary cap means two important things. First, teams are not going to have as much cap space as they may have projected. Second, several teams (Chicago) are going to have to dump veteran talent to fit under the cap. KHL The KHL is a wild card in all this. On the one hand, the Ruble makes the Loonie look like gold bullion. On the other hand, who knows what some Russian oligarch might wave at him. The KHL does have a salary cap that works out to about $17m a team but some owners are looking to reduce it further.. Contract options – 1 year deal with performance bonus A huge advantage to this type of contract is that the cap hit of the bonus would get delayed to 2016-17. A $3m base salary with $1-2m in bonuses for goals scored fits him under the cap in 2015-16 without any other roster moves. The down side is that his bonus would reduce the cap space available in 2016-17. Bridge contract Tarasenko would be a RFA until age 27, so a 2 or 3 year contract would be a bridge deal. Armstrong and the Blues have preferred to use this type of deal. More years would probably mean a higher AAV which would be harder to fit under the 2015-16 cap. One possible way around this is a lower base salary with signing bonuses for the second (or second and third) years. Long term deal This would be uncharted territory for Army and the Blues. Presumably the AAV would be higher than the available $4m, which would mean the Blues would have to make some cap space. Finding cap space Barrett Jackman Jackman makes $3.25m this season and is a UFA next season. $3m is a pretty cap friendly number for Jax. If they can sign him for that I hope they do. Replacing him with one of the prospects (Lindbohm or Hakanpaa) saves about $2.5m. Steve Ott Grossly overpaid (pun intended) at $2.6m, signed for next season. It's hard for me to imagine that anyone would see Ott as an asset worth acquiring at that price. Then again, the Penguins did trade for Lapierre. Ott level production is available for $1m or less. That would free up $1.6m or so. Patrik Berglund Bergy makes $3.7m for the next two seasons. Berglund can probably be moved this summer for future assets and be replaced by Rattie or Fabbri. That would save about $2.8m AAV and required moves At an AAV of $4m or less, no roster changes have to be made. At an AAV of $5m, parting with any one of Jackman, Ott, or Berglund frees enough cap space. At an AAV of $6m, you would have to lose Jackman or move Berglund. At an AAV of $7m, you need to part with at least 2 of the three.