We have reached a point in the season where I can start posting and updating the momentum charts I created last season with the help of @petbugs13 and Stephen Burtch.
These charts are based off of stock momentum charts where you are looking for the short term average to cross the long term average as a sign of positive momentum. Conversely when the short term average drops belong the long term average, we expect to see a downward trend for the team.
Looking at the St. Louis Blues momentum, the shot based metrics of corsi, fenwick, and scoring chances are showing improving momentum, as do goals for and even on ice shooting %, to an extent. So this is the good news. Conventional wisdom says if they continue to improve in these areas, then the goals will follow.
The downside however is the high danger scoring chances is definitely trending bearish. On ice save % is tending bearish as well and that should come as no surprise given the Blues recent goaltending struggles. But this save % is also forcing PDO to trend downward.
But, this is at 5v5. The shot based metrics drop slightly but the trends remain. The one trend that changes between 5v5 to all strengths is goals for. The trend is still above 50% but instead of short term crossing the long term, they are even. The drop in save percentage is even more pronounced, as is the upward trends in shot percentage.
So there is hope for this team. If they continue to do the things to move the shot based metrics in the right direction, stay out of the penalty box, continue their relative success at the power play, and if the Blues can get through their goaltending slump, they have the potential to finish the season in a much better position.